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icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
World·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 22%

Alvin Lafu Sika 10%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 8%

Samiuela Vea 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 22%

Alvin Lafu Sika 10%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 8%

Samiuela Vea 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$1,733 Vol.

22%

Alvin Lafu Sika

$159 Vol.

10%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$198 Vol.

8%

Samiuela Vea

$167 Vol.

8%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$135 Vol.

3%

Mounu Uaisele

$505 Vol.

3%

Lei Paasi

$156 Vol.

3%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$196 Vol.

3%

'Olioni Manoa

$130 Vol.

1%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October stems from the Supreme Court’s bribery ruling against former MP Semisi Sika, who won the seat in 2025 but was unseated and barred from contesting for five years. Nine candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, creating a fragmented first-past-the-post contest in the Nuku’alofa-area constituency. Market pricing shows Malakai Matafonuafo’ou ‘Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi leading at 21.5 percent, followed by Alvin Lafu Sika at 10 percent, with the rest of the field below 10 percent and many options at minimal implied probabilities. The wide dispersion reflects limited public polling, village-level support dynamics, and the absence of a dominant incumbent or unified opposition. Late endorsements, turnout patterns among key villages, or any consolidation among lower-polling contenders could quickly alter the distribution before polling day.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$3,378
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October stems from the Supreme Court’s bribery ruling against former MP Semisi Sika, who won the seat in 2025 but was unseated and barred from contesting for five years. Nine candidates registered after nominations closed in early September, creating a fragmented first-past-the-post contest in the Nuku’alofa-area constituency. Market pricing shows Malakai Matafonuafo’ou ‘Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi leading at 21.5 percent, followed by Alvin Lafu Sika at 10 percent, with the rest of the field below 10 percent and many options at minimal implied probabilities. The wide dispersion reflects limited public polling, village-level support dynamics, and the absence of a dominant incumbent or unified opposition. Late endorsements, turnout patterns among key villages, or any consolidation among lower-polling contenders could quickly alter the distribution before polling day.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$3,378
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" at 22%, followed by "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" is "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alvin Lafu Sika" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.