Recent polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show Labour and National locked in a tight race for the top two spots under MMP, with Labour edging ahead on party vote in most August surveys while National remains in the high 20s. This positioning underpins trader consensus that National will finish second, as the two major parties continue to dominate combined support despite minor-party gains by NZ First, the Greens, ACT, and the Opportunity Party. Internal National tensions, including leadership votes and coalition positioning, have weighed on its numbers without handing clear gains to Labour. The short campaign window leaves limited time for major shifts, though volatility in undecided voters and bloc negotiations could still alter final order.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
New Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National Party 53%
Labour Party 41%
New Zealand First Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$18,387 Vol.
$18,387 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
53%
Labour Party
41%
New Zealand First Party
1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Green Party
<1%
National Party 53%
Labour Party 41%
New Zealand First Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$18,387 Vol.
$18,387 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
$8,991 Vol.
53%
Labour Party
$5,028 Vol.
41%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 Vol.
1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,243 Vol.
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,322 Vol.
<1%
Green Party
$542 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show Labour and National locked in a tight race for the top two spots under MMP, with Labour edging ahead on party vote in most August surveys while National remains in the high 20s. This positioning underpins trader consensus that National will finish second, as the two major parties continue to dominate combined support despite minor-party gains by NZ First, the Greens, ACT, and the Opportunity Party. Internal National tensions, including leadership votes and coalition positioning, have weighed on its numbers without handing clear gains to Labour. The short campaign window leaves limited time for major shifts, though volatility in undecided voters and bloc negotiations could still alter final order.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,387End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show Labour and National locked in a tight race for the top two spots under MMP, with Labour edging ahead on party vote in most August surveys while National remains in the high 20s. This positioning underpins trader consensus that National will finish second, as the two major parties continue to dominate combined support despite minor-party gains by NZ First, the Greens, ACT, and the Opportunity Party. Internal National tensions, including leadership votes and coalition positioning, have weighed on its numbers without handing clear gains to Labour. The short campaign window leaves limited time for major shifts, though volatility in undecided voters and bloc negotiations could still alter final order.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$18,387End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show Labour and National locked in a tight race for the top two spots under MMP, with Labour edging ahead on party vote in most August surveys while National remains in the high 20s. This positioning underpins trader consensus that National will finish second, as the two major parties continue to dominate combined support despite minor-party gains by NZ First, the Greens, ACT, and the Opportunity Party. Internal National tensions, including leadership votes and coalition positioning, have weighed on its numbers without handing clear gains to Labour. The short campaign window leaves limited time for major shifts, though volatility in undecided voters and bloc negotiations could still alter final order.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
59%
Labour
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