Recent polling averages place Labour and National narrowly ahead as the top two parties ahead of the November 2026 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Greens in a tight contest for third place on roughly 10–11 percent each. New Zealand First’s slight edge in recent surveys, including the latest RNZ–Reid Research result, underpins its stronger market positioning, while the Greens remain competitive but have not pulled ahead consistently. The rising Opportunity Party near the 5 percent threshold and ongoing volatility in National’s support have not materially altered the minor-party ordering. Traders appear to view the current narrow gap and New Zealand First’s steadier recent trajectory as the primary factors sustaining its lead in implied probability for third place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand First Party 62%
Green Party 37%
ACT New Zealand 2.7%
National Party 2.2%
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
62%
Green Party
37%
ACT New Zealand
3%
National Party
2%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
New Zealand First Party 62%
Green Party 37%
ACT New Zealand 2.7%
National Party 2.2%
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
$5,130 Vol.
62%
Green Party
$5,603 Vol.
37%
ACT New Zealand
$709 Vol.
3%
National Party
$415 Vol.
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$774 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,065 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour and National narrowly ahead as the top two parties ahead of the November 2026 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Greens in a tight contest for third place on roughly 10–11 percent each. New Zealand First’s slight edge in recent surveys, including the latest RNZ–Reid Research result, underpins its stronger market positioning, while the Greens remain competitive but have not pulled ahead consistently. The rising Opportunity Party near the 5 percent threshold and ongoing volatility in National’s support have not materially altered the minor-party ordering. Traders appear to view the current narrow gap and New Zealand First’s steadier recent trajectory as the primary factors sustaining its lead in implied probability for third place.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$13,696End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour and National narrowly ahead as the top two parties ahead of the November 2026 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Greens in a tight contest for third place on roughly 10–11 percent each. New Zealand First’s slight edge in recent surveys, including the latest RNZ–Reid Research result, underpins its stronger market positioning, while the Greens remain competitive but have not pulled ahead consistently. The rising Opportunity Party near the 5 percent threshold and ongoing volatility in National’s support have not materially altered the minor-party ordering. Traders appear to view the current narrow gap and New Zealand First’s steadier recent trajectory as the primary factors sustaining its lead in implied probability for third place.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$13,696End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Labour and National narrowly ahead as the top two parties ahead of the November 2026 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Greens in a tight contest for third place on roughly 10–11 percent each. New Zealand First’s slight edge in recent surveys, including the latest RNZ–Reid Research result, underpins its stronger market positioning, while the Greens remain competitive but have not pulled ahead consistently. The rising Opportunity Party near the 5 percent threshold and ongoing volatility in National’s support have not materially altered the minor-party ordering. Traders appear to view the current narrow gap and New Zealand First’s steadier recent trajectory as the primary factors sustaining its lead in implied probability for third place.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
39%
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