Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321-328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required for a constitutional referendum or the 400 votes needed for direct passage of major changes. Recent parliamentary activity has centered on the August 2026 framework law tied to the PKK peace process, which secured broader cross-party support but did not address constitutional reform. AKP commissions continue preparatory drafting and consultation work, and senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced optimism about progress in 2026-2027, yet no draft text has advanced to formal consideration or vote. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of a viable coalition for supermajority support leave the path to a new constitution blocked for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321-328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required for a constitutional referendum or the 400 votes needed for direct passage of major changes. Recent parliamentary activity has centered on the August 2026 framework law tied to the PKK peace process, which secured broader cross-party support but did not address constitutional reform. AKP commissions continue preparatory drafting and consultation work, and senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced optimism about progress in 2026-2027, yet no draft text has advanced to formal consideration or vote. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of a viable coalition for supermajority support leave the path to a new constitution blocked for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,287End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321-328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required for a constitutional referendum or the 400 votes needed for direct passage of major changes. Recent parliamentary activity has centered on the August 2026 framework law tied to the PKK peace process, which secured broader cross-party support but did not address constitutional reform. AKP commissions continue preparatory drafting and consultation work, and senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced optimism about progress in 2026-2027, yet no draft text has advanced to formal consideration or vote. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of a viable coalition for supermajority support leave the path to a new constitution blocked for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,287End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 321-328 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required for a constitutional referendum or the 400 votes needed for direct passage of major changes. Recent parliamentary activity has centered on the August 2026 framework law tied to the PKK peace process, which secured broader cross-party support but did not address constitutional reform. AKP commissions continue preparatory drafting and consultation work, and senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced optimism about progress in 2026-2027, yet no draft text has advanced to formal consideration or vote. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of a viable coalition for supermajority support leave the path to a new constitution blocked for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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