**Recent parliamentary consensus on a major anti-terror bill has fueled discussion of constitutional reform, but no referendum has been formally announced or scheduled for 2026.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in mid-August 2026 that drafting a new civilian constitution is now a “political obligation” following the record 467-vote passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion, which advanced the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. AKP officials have continued preparatory work on a draft, with earlier June remarks from the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026–2027 after broader parliamentary agreement. However, the ruling alliance lacks the seats needed for an immediate supermajority path, opposition parties remain divided, and no bill has advanced to the required parliamentary threshold (360 votes for a referendum route or 400 for direct enactment) or received an official announcement. Trader pricing at roughly 80% against an announcement this year reflects the gap between ongoing exploratory statements and the absence of concrete procedural steps or a set timeline before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent parliamentary consensus on a major anti-terror bill has fueled discussion of constitutional reform, but no referendum has been formally announced or scheduled for 2026.**
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in mid-August 2026 that drafting a new civilian constitution is now a “political obligation” following the record 467-vote passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion, which advanced the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. AKP officials have continued preparatory work on a draft, with earlier June remarks from the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026–2027 after broader parliamentary agreement.
However, the ruling alliance lacks the seats needed for an immediate supermajority path, opposition parties remain divided, and no bill has advanced to the required parliamentary threshold (360 votes for a referendum route or 400 for direct enactment) or received an official announcement. Trader pricing at roughly 80% against an announcement this year reflects the gap between ongoing exploratory statements and the absence of concrete procedural steps or a set timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,794End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent parliamentary consensus on a major anti-terror bill has fueled discussion of constitutional reform, but no referendum has been formally announced or scheduled for 2026.**
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in mid-August 2026 that drafting a new civilian constitution is now a “political obligation” following the record 467-vote passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion, which advanced the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. AKP officials have continued preparatory work on a draft, with earlier June remarks from the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026–2027 after broader parliamentary agreement.
However, the ruling alliance lacks the seats needed for an immediate supermajority path, opposition parties remain divided, and no bill has advanced to the required parliamentary threshold (360 votes for a referendum route or 400 for direct enactment) or received an official announcement. Trader pricing at roughly 80% against an announcement this year reflects the gap between ongoing exploratory statements and the absence of concrete procedural steps or a set timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,794End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent parliamentary consensus on a major anti-terror bill has fueled discussion of constitutional reform, but no referendum has been formally announced or scheduled for 2026.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in mid-August 2026 that drafting a new civilian constitution is now a “political obligation” following the record 467-vote passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Cohesion, which advanced the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative. AKP officials have continued preparatory work on a draft, with earlier June remarks from the speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026–2027 after broader parliamentary agreement. However, the ruling alliance lacks the seats needed for an immediate supermajority path, opposition parties remain divided, and no bill has advanced to the required parliamentary threshold (360 votes for a referendum route or 400 for direct enactment) or received an official announcement. Trader pricing at roughly 80% against an announcement this year reflects the gap between ongoing exploratory statements and the absence of concrete procedural steps or a set timeline before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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