The military junta that assumed power after the November 2025 coup has scheduled the constitutional referendum for 30 August 2026 and controls the transitional institutions overseeing the vote. These authorities drafted and unanimously approved the text, which shifts Guinea-Bissau from a semi-presidential system toward stronger executive authority by allowing the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament in defined crises, and reduce legislative seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have raised concerns over exclusion from drafting and questioned procedural legality ahead of December elections, yet limited campaign space and junta administration of the process underpin trader consensus that the measure will pass. Potential shifts remain tied to turnout dynamics or unforeseen institutional interventions before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPasses 98.6%
Fails 1.1%
No Referendum in 2026 1.0%
$10,293 Vol.
$10,293 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
99%
Fails
1%
No Referendum in 2026
1%
Passes 98.6%
Fails 1.1%
No Referendum in 2026 1.0%
$10,293 Vol.
$10,293 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
$7,194 Vol.
99%
Fails
$1,772 Vol.
1%
No Referendum in 2026
$1,328 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta that assumed power after the November 2025 coup has scheduled the constitutional referendum for 30 August 2026 and controls the transitional institutions overseeing the vote. These authorities drafted and unanimously approved the text, which shifts Guinea-Bissau from a semi-presidential system toward stronger executive authority by allowing the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament in defined crises, and reduce legislative seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have raised concerns over exclusion from drafting and questioned procedural legality ahead of December elections, yet limited campaign space and junta administration of the process underpin trader consensus that the measure will pass. Potential shifts remain tied to turnout dynamics or unforeseen institutional interventions before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$10,293End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).The military junta that assumed power after the November 2025 coup has scheduled the constitutional referendum for 30 August 2026 and controls the transitional institutions overseeing the vote. These authorities drafted and unanimously approved the text, which shifts Guinea-Bissau from a semi-presidential system toward stronger executive authority by allowing the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament in defined crises, and reduce legislative seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have raised concerns over exclusion from drafting and questioned procedural legality ahead of December elections, yet limited campaign space and junta administration of the process underpin trader consensus that the measure will pass. Potential shifts remain tied to turnout dynamics or unforeseen institutional interventions before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Volume
$10,293End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The military junta that assumed power after the November 2025 coup has scheduled the constitutional referendum for 30 August 2026 and controls the transitional institutions overseeing the vote. These authorities drafted and unanimously approved the text, which shifts Guinea-Bissau from a semi-presidential system toward stronger executive authority by allowing the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet, dissolve parliament in defined crises, and reduce legislative seats from 102 to 65. Opposition parties and civil society groups have raised concerns over exclusion from drafting and questioned procedural legality ahead of December elections, yet limited campaign space and junta administration of the process underpin trader consensus that the measure will pass. Potential shifts remain tied to turnout dynamics or unforeseen institutional interventions before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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