**Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” leads the fragmented field for the December 6, 2026, legislative election, followed by FREPASNA, amid a military-led transitional process after the November 2025 coup that halted the prior vote.** The race remains tight because multiple smaller parties and coalitions compete in a multi-member proportional representation system across numerous constituencies, with no single grouping commanding broad consolidation of support. Historical patterns of party splits, judicial exclusions of major actors such as the PAIGC, and shifting alliances among groups including elements of Madem-G15 and PRS have sustained this dispersion. The August 30 constitutional referendum—set to expand presidential appointment and dissolution powers while shrinking the assembly from 102 to 65 seats and reducing districts—stands as the immediate catalyst. Its outcome could reshape candidate eligibility, financing requirements, and institutional leverage, potentially favoring or constraining the leading platform depending on voter approval and junta administration of the process. Subsequent developments such as coalition realignments, transitional council decisions on the electoral commission, or ECOWAS-mediated pressures could widen or narrow margins ahead of the December vote. Trader consensus prices reflect this ongoing uncertainty in a low-information environment where formal polling is restricted.