Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August places BSW at approximately 4 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, consistent with the 3-5 percent bracket holding the highest implied probability. The party has stabilized near but mostly below the 5 percent threshold after earlier 2026 readings reached 5-6 percent, reflecting a broader national softening from 2024-2025 peaks amid internal organizational strains and limited eastern German momentum. Statements by BSW state leaders favoring an end to the AfD firewall and potential cooperation in government formation have drawn attention but produced no measurable polling shift ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The 5 percent entry hurdle, combined with competition from established parties and voter focus on the AfD-SPD contest, continues to anchor trader expectations in the narrow 3-5 percent band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
3-5% 68%
<3% 32%
5-7% 2.3%
7%+ 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<3%
32%
3-5%
68%
5-7%
2%
7%+
1%
3-5% 68%
<3% 32%
5-7% 2.3%
7%+ 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<3%
$1,524 Vol.
32%
3-5%
$993 Vol.
68%
5-7%
$97 Vol.
2%
7%+
$318 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August places BSW at approximately 4 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, consistent with the 3-5 percent bracket holding the highest implied probability. The party has stabilized near but mostly below the 5 percent threshold after earlier 2026 readings reached 5-6 percent, reflecting a broader national softening from 2024-2025 peaks amid internal organizational strains and limited eastern German momentum. Statements by BSW state leaders favoring an end to the AfD firewall and potential cooperation in government formation have drawn attention but produced no measurable polling shift ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The 5 percent entry hurdle, combined with competition from established parties and voter focus on the AfD-SPD contest, continues to anchor trader expectations in the narrow 3-5 percent band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,932End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August places BSW at approximately 4 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, consistent with the 3-5 percent bracket holding the highest implied probability. The party has stabilized near but mostly below the 5 percent threshold after earlier 2026 readings reached 5-6 percent, reflecting a broader national softening from 2024-2025 peaks amid internal organizational strains and limited eastern German momentum. Statements by BSW state leaders favoring an end to the AfD firewall and potential cooperation in government formation have drawn attention but produced no measurable polling shift ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The 5 percent entry hurdle, combined with competition from established parties and voter focus on the AfD-SPD contest, continues to anchor trader expectations in the narrow 3-5 percent band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$2,932End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August places BSW at approximately 4 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, consistent with the 3-5 percent bracket holding the highest implied probability. The party has stabilized near but mostly below the 5 percent threshold after earlier 2026 readings reached 5-6 percent, reflecting a broader national softening from 2024-2025 peaks amid internal organizational strains and limited eastern German momentum. Statements by BSW state leaders favoring an end to the AfD firewall and potential cooperation in government formation have drawn attention but produced no measurable polling shift ahead of the September 20 Landtag election. The 5 percent entry hurdle, combined with competition from established parties and voter focus on the AfD-SPD contest, continues to anchor trader expectations in the narrow 3-5 percent band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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