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icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Politics·Venezuela

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Politics·Venezuela

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

3% chance
Polymarket

$179,243 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$179,243 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US policy has prioritized stability through interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal, sidelining immediate recognition of María Corina Machado.** The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, established diplomatic ties with Rodríguez’s government, lifted related sanctions, and secured oversight of Venezuelan oil revenues via U.S.-controlled accounts to support economic recovery and earthquake relief following the June 2026 seismic events. Machado, despite her popularity in polls and the 2024 opposition primary, has faced explicit discouragement from returning to Venezuela, with officials citing risks of unrest; she and Edmundo González Urrutia have remained in exile and opted out of August 2026 transition talks between the interim authorities and select opposition representatives. This approach reflects a three-phase U.S. framework emphasizing stabilization and reconciliation before elections, with no scheduled recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Recent developments, including resumed negotiations without her direct involvement and continued U.S. engagement with Rodríguez on security and investment matters, have reinforced trader expectations that formal recognition will not occur by December 31. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a sudden collapse of the Rodríguez-led interim structure, major escalation in domestic instability prompting a U.S. policy pivot, or breakthrough diplomatic developments that accelerate a broader transition. However, entrenched U.S. leverage over finances and security cooperation makes such changes improbable in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,243
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US policy has prioritized stability through interim President Delcy Rodríguez since Maduro’s January 2026 removal, sidelining immediate recognition of María Corina Machado.** The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, established diplomatic ties with Rodríguez’s government, lifted related sanctions, and secured oversight of Venezuelan oil revenues via U.S.-controlled accounts to support economic recovery and earthquake relief following the June 2026 seismic events. Machado, despite her popularity in polls and the 2024 opposition primary, has faced explicit discouragement from returning to Venezuela, with officials citing risks of unrest; she and Edmundo González Urrutia have remained in exile and opted out of August 2026 transition talks between the interim authorities and select opposition representatives. This approach reflects a three-phase U.S. framework emphasizing stabilization and reconciliation before elections, with no scheduled recognition of Machado as leader by year-end. Recent developments, including resumed negotiations without her direct involvement and continued U.S. engagement with Rodríguez on security and investment matters, have reinforced trader expectations that formal recognition will not occur by December 31. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a sudden collapse of the Rodríguez-led interim structure, major escalation in domestic instability prompting a U.S. policy pivot, or breakthrough diplomatic developments that accelerate a broader transition. However, entrenched U.S. leverage over finances and security cooperation makes such changes improbable in the remaining months.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,243
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" has generated $179.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.