**Persistent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 150–170 range for the USD/JPY year-end 2026 close.** Sticky U.S. inflation—July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—has kept expectations for additional Fed tightening or delayed easing alive, while the BoJ’s gradual normalization (policy rate at 1.00% after recent 25 bp hikes) narrows the yield spread only modestly. Recent data, including Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8–2.0% in August and lower unemployment, reinforce BoJ hike probabilities near 85% for September, yet the yen’s post-intervention rebound to the 159–160 area has proven short-lived amid resilient dollar demand. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the closely contested 150–160 and 160–170 buckets highlighting uncertainty over the pace of rate convergence versus carry-trade dynamics. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC and BoJ decisions, fresh CPI releases, and any renewed intervention signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated160-170 35%
150-160 34%
140-150 29.0%
<140 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<140
12%
140-150
17%
150-160
34%
160-170
35%
170-180
8%
180+
5%
160-170 35%
150-160 34%
140-150 29.0%
<140 12%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<140
$478 Vol.
12%
140-150
$189 Vol.
17%
150-160
$1,668 Vol.
34%
160-170
$287 Vol.
35%
170-180
$136 Vol.
8%
180+
$200 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Investing.com close price (“C”) for the USD/JPY daily candle on December 31, 2026.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Persistent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 150–170 range for the USD/JPY year-end 2026 close.** Sticky U.S. inflation—July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—has kept expectations for additional Fed tightening or delayed easing alive, while the BoJ’s gradual normalization (policy rate at 1.00% after recent 25 bp hikes) narrows the yield spread only modestly. Recent data, including Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8–2.0% in August and lower unemployment, reinforce BoJ hike probabilities near 85% for September, yet the yen’s post-intervention rebound to the 159–160 area has proven short-lived amid resilient dollar demand. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the closely contested 150–160 and 160–170 buckets highlighting uncertainty over the pace of rate convergence versus carry-trade dynamics. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC and BoJ decisions, fresh CPI releases, and any renewed intervention signals.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Investing.com close price (“C”) for the USD/JPY daily candle on December 31, 2026.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$2,958End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Investing.com close price (“C”) for the USD/JPY daily candle on December 31, 2026.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Persistent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 150–170 range for the USD/JPY year-end 2026 close.** Sticky U.S. inflation—July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—has kept expectations for additional Fed tightening or delayed easing alive, while the BoJ’s gradual normalization (policy rate at 1.00% after recent 25 bp hikes) narrows the yield spread only modestly. Recent data, including Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8–2.0% in August and lower unemployment, reinforce BoJ hike probabilities near 85% for September, yet the yen’s post-intervention rebound to the 159–160 area has proven short-lived amid resilient dollar demand. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the closely contested 150–160 and 160–170 buckets highlighting uncertainty over the pace of rate convergence versus carry-trade dynamics. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC and BoJ decisions, fresh CPI releases, and any renewed intervention signals.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Investing.com close price (“C”) for the USD/JPY daily candle on December 31, 2026.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,958End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 150–170 range for the USD/JPY year-end 2026 close.** Sticky U.S. inflation—July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—has kept expectations for additional Fed tightening or delayed easing alive, while the BoJ’s gradual normalization (policy rate at 1.00% after recent 25 bp hikes) narrows the yield spread only modestly. Recent data, including Tokyo core CPI accelerating to 1.8–2.0% in August and lower unemployment, reinforce BoJ hike probabilities near 85% for September, yet the yen’s post-intervention rebound to the 159–160 area has proven short-lived amid resilient dollar demand. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the closely contested 150–160 and 160–170 buckets highlighting uncertainty over the pace of rate convergence versus carry-trade dynamics. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC and BoJ decisions, fresh CPI releases, and any renewed intervention signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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