**US military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president have anchored trader expectations for continuity through the end of the year.** Rodríguez, backed by the National Assembly under her brother Jorge Rodríguez, has consolidated control amid US-supported stabilization efforts, including oil revenue oversight, prisoner releases, and sanctions adjustments. Transition talks launched in early August between the interim government and Dinorah Figuera’s 2015 National Assembly faction focus on institutional reforms such as electoral council and Supreme Court changes, but lack firm election timelines and have sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. June earthquakes further slowed momentum, while US influence under the Trump administration prioritizes managed change over rapid opposition-led shifts. These factors sustain Maduro’s dominant implied probability and limit upside for alternatives absent decisive new developments by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 83.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.1%
No Head of State 1.1%
$95,863,891 Vol.
$95,863,891 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
84%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
2%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 83.7%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.1%
No Head of State 1.1%
$95,863,891 Vol.
$95,863,891 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,804,015 Vol.
84%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,772,759 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,452,087 Vol.
2%
No Head of State
$1,515,210 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,215,051 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,089,716 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$817,449 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,164,400 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,982,294 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,638,090 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,129,695 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,408,872 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,181,993 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,806,469 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,127,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,758,717 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**US military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president have anchored trader expectations for continuity through the end of the year.**
Rodríguez, backed by the National Assembly under her brother Jorge Rodríguez, has consolidated control amid US-supported stabilization efforts, including oil revenue oversight, prisoner releases, and sanctions adjustments. Transition talks launched in early August between the interim government and Dinorah Figuera’s 2015 National Assembly faction focus on institutional reforms such as electoral council and Supreme Court changes, but lack firm election timelines and have sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. June earthquakes further slowed momentum, while US influence under the Trump administration prioritizes managed change over rapid opposition-led shifts. These factors sustain Maduro’s dominant implied probability and limit upside for alternatives absent decisive new developments by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,863,891End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**US military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president have anchored trader expectations for continuity through the end of the year.**
Rodríguez, backed by the National Assembly under her brother Jorge Rodríguez, has consolidated control amid US-supported stabilization efforts, including oil revenue oversight, prisoner releases, and sanctions adjustments. Transition talks launched in early August between the interim government and Dinorah Figuera’s 2015 National Assembly faction focus on institutional reforms such as electoral council and Supreme Court changes, but lack firm election timelines and have sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. June earthquakes further slowed momentum, while US influence under the Trump administration prioritizes managed change over rapid opposition-led shifts. These factors sustain Maduro’s dominant implied probability and limit upside for alternatives absent decisive new developments by year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,863,891End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**US military capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president have anchored trader expectations for continuity through the end of the year.** Rodríguez, backed by the National Assembly under her brother Jorge Rodríguez, has consolidated control amid US-supported stabilization efforts, including oil revenue oversight, prisoner releases, and sanctions adjustments. Transition talks launched in early August between the interim government and Dinorah Figuera’s 2015 National Assembly faction focus on institutional reforms such as electoral council and Supreme Court changes, but lack firm election timelines and have sidelined María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. June earthquakes further slowed momentum, while US influence under the Trump administration prioritizes managed change over rapid opposition-led shifts. These factors sustain Maduro’s dominant implied probability and limit upside for alternatives absent decisive new developments by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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