Recent polling averages show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding a narrow edge but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed for a majority in the 122-seat Parliament under MMP, with the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc close behind. The Opportunity Party has risen above the 5% threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker after National ruled out cooperation. Voter support for the two largest parties has fallen to multi-decade lows amid internal National leadership challenges and coalition tensions. The 7 November 2026 election remains the decisive event, with dissolution scheduled for early October and advance voting beginning late that month. Trader consensus on coalition outcomes reflects this fluid seat math and the limited number of viable post-election combinations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Green Party
55%
ACT New Zealand
46%
National Party
46%
Labour Party
57%
Te Pāti Māori
42%
New Zealand First Party
42%
$1,181 Vol.
Green Party
$48 Vol.
55%
ACT New Zealand
$8 Vol.
46%
National Party
$572 Vol.
46%
Labour Party
$497 Vol.
57%
Te Pāti Māori
$50 Vol.
42%
New Zealand First Party
$7 Vol.
42%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding a narrow edge but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed for a majority in the 122-seat Parliament under MMP, with the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc close behind. The Opportunity Party has risen above the 5% threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker after National ruled out cooperation. Voter support for the two largest parties has fallen to multi-decade lows amid internal National leadership challenges and coalition tensions. The 7 November 2026 election remains the decisive event, with dissolution scheduled for early October and advance voting beginning late that month. Trader consensus on coalition outcomes reflects this fluid seat math and the limited number of viable post-election combinations.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,181End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding a narrow edge but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed for a majority in the 122-seat Parliament under MMP, with the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc close behind. The Opportunity Party has risen above the 5% threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker after National ruled out cooperation. Voter support for the two largest parties has fallen to multi-decade lows amid internal National leadership challenges and coalition tensions. The 7 November 2026 election remains the decisive event, with dissolution scheduled for early October and advance voting beginning late that month. Trader consensus on coalition outcomes reflects this fluid seat math and the limited number of viable post-election combinations.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,181End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding a narrow edge but frequently falling short of the 62 seats needed for a majority in the 122-seat Parliament under MMP, with the Labour–Greens–Te Pāti Māori bloc close behind. The Opportunity Party has risen above the 5% threshold in multiple surveys, positioning it as a potential kingmaker after National ruled out cooperation. Voter support for the two largest parties has fallen to multi-decade lows amid internal National leadership challenges and coalition tensions. The 7 November 2026 election remains the decisive event, with dissolution scheduled for early October and advance voting beginning late that month. Trader consensus on coalition outcomes reflects this fluid seat math and the limited number of viable post-election combinations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
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Frequently Asked Questions