**Saudi Arabia remains the primary candidate for joining the Abraham Accords, yet negotiations remain stalled over Riyadh’s insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a condition rejected by Israel’s current government.** Recent U.S. efforts, including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to normalization, have not produced a breakthrough, with the deal sent to Congress in late August still tied to the same unresolved demands. Broader regional dynamics after the 2025 Iran conflict and ceasefire have not shifted Gulf states’ positions sufficiently for quick accession, while other potential participants such as Indonesia or Qatar face similar barriers. With only two months remaining until the October 31 resolution date, the absence of concrete diplomatic movement underpins traders’ 78% implied probability against a new signatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
22% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia remains the primary candidate for joining the Abraham Accords, yet negotiations remain stalled over Riyadh’s insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a condition rejected by Israel’s current government.** Recent U.S. efforts, including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to normalization, have not produced a breakthrough, with the deal sent to Congress in late August still tied to the same unresolved demands. Broader regional dynamics after the 2025 Iran conflict and ceasefire have not shifted Gulf states’ positions sufficiently for quick accession, while other potential participants such as Indonesia or Qatar face similar barriers. With only two months remaining until the October 31 resolution date, the absence of concrete diplomatic movement underpins traders’ 78% implied probability against a new signatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Saudi Arabia remains the primary candidate for joining the Abraham Accords, yet negotiations remain stalled over Riyadh’s insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a condition rejected by Israel’s current government.** Recent U.S. efforts, including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to normalization, have not produced a breakthrough, with the deal sent to Congress in late August still tied to the same unresolved demands. Broader regional dynamics after the 2025 Iran conflict and ceasefire have not shifted Gulf states’ positions sufficiently for quick accession, while other potential participants such as Indonesia or Qatar face similar barriers. With only two months remaining until the October 31 resolution date, the absence of concrete diplomatic movement underpins traders’ 78% implied probability against a new signatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Saudi Arabia remains the primary candidate for joining the Abraham Accords, yet negotiations remain stalled over Riyadh’s insistence on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a condition rejected by Israel’s current government.** Recent U.S. efforts, including President Trump’s July 2026 linkage of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to normalization, have not produced a breakthrough, with the deal sent to Congress in late August still tied to the same unresolved demands. Broader regional dynamics after the 2025 Iran conflict and ceasefire have not shifted Gulf states’ positions sufficiently for quick accession, while other potential participants such as Indonesia or Qatar face similar barriers. With only two months remaining until the October 31 resolution date, the absence of concrete diplomatic movement underpins traders’ 78% implied probability against a new signatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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