Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum. Recent U.S. efforts center on conditioning a Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement—formally sent to Congress in late August 2026—on Riyadh’s normalization with Israel, yet Saudi officials continue to require an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition Israeli leadership has rejected. Syria maintains dialogue with Israel but has declined formal accession, while other candidates such as Indonesia remain on hold amid unresolved regional priorities. With the short remaining window and no verified breakthroughs in bilateral negotiations or U.S.-brokered talks, market pricing aligns with the absence of imminent signings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum. Recent U.S. efforts center on conditioning a Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement—formally sent to Congress in late August 2026—on Riyadh’s normalization with Israel, yet Saudi officials continue to require an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition Israeli leadership has rejected. Syria maintains dialogue with Israel but has declined formal accession, while other candidates such as Indonesia remain on hold amid unresolved regional priorities. With the short remaining window and no verified breakthroughs in bilateral negotiations or U.S.-brokered talks, market pricing aligns with the absence of imminent signings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$794End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum. Recent U.S. efforts center on conditioning a Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement—formally sent to Congress in late August 2026—on Riyadh’s normalization with Israel, yet Saudi officials continue to require an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition Israeli leadership has rejected. Syria maintains dialogue with Israel but has declined formal accession, while other candidates such as Indonesia remain on hold amid unresolved regional priorities. With the short remaining window and no verified breakthroughs in bilateral negotiations or U.S.-brokered talks, market pricing aligns with the absence of imminent signings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$794End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords by October 31, reflecting stalled diplomatic momentum. Recent U.S. efforts center on conditioning a Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement—formally sent to Congress in late August 2026—on Riyadh’s normalization with Israel, yet Saudi officials continue to require an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition Israeli leadership has rejected. Syria maintains dialogue with Israel but has declined formal accession, while other candidates such as Indonesia remain on hold amid unresolved regional priorities. With the short remaining window and no verified breakthroughs in bilateral negotiations or U.S.-brokered talks, market pricing aligns with the absence of imminent signings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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