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Sports·ATP

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

icon for 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Sports·ATP

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Carlos Alcaraz 28%

Alexander Zverev 23.1%

Novak Djokovic 9.8%

Taylor Fritz 7.2%

Polymarket

$11,916,926 Vol.

Carlos Alcaraz 28%

Alexander Zverev 23.1%

Novak Djokovic 9.8%

Taylor Fritz 7.2%

Polymarket

$11,916,926 Vol.

Carlos Alcaraz

$961,325 Vol.

28%

Alexander Zverev

$508,175 Vol.

23%

Novak Djokovic

$904,459 Vol.

10%

Taylor Fritz

$465,608 Vol.

7%

Arthur Fils

$577,768 Vol.

7%

Ben Shelton

$452,219 Vol.

5%

Felix Auger Aliassime

$916,455 Vol.

3%

Flavio Cobolli

$394,147 Vol.

3%

Jakub Mensik

$447,834 Vol.

3%

Daniil Medvedev

$456,438 Vol.

2%

Frances Tiafoe

$396,318 Vol.

2%

Lorenzo Musetti

$514,697 Vol.

1%

Jiri Lehecka

$594,280 Vol.

1%

Andrey Rublev

$423,258 Vol.

1%

Alexander Bublik

$337,046 Vol.

1%

Matteo Berrettini

$540,250 Vol.

<1%

Hubert Hurkacz

$400,261 Vol.

<1%

Grigor Dimitrov

$926,804 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open winner market at 27.5% implied probability as defending champion, but his four-month wrist injury layoff creates uncertainty on hard courts after missing Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner’s right knee withdrawal removes the top-ranked player and reshapes seeding, elevating Alexander Zverev (23.1%) into the top half with a favorable path following his strong recent results. Novak Djokovic (9.8%) at age 39 remains a threat on big stages, while emerging options like Arthur Fils (7.0%), Taylor Fritz (7.2%), and Ben Shelton (5.5%) benefit from solid hard-court form and depth in the draw. The tight clustering among leaders reflects a wide-open Grand Slam where recent injury disruptions, limited match play for favorites, and strong contender momentum keep probabilities closely contested.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,916,926
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz leads the 2026 US Open winner market at 27.5% implied probability as defending champion, but his four-month wrist injury layoff creates uncertainty on hard courts after missing Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner’s right knee withdrawal removes the top-ranked player and reshapes seeding, elevating Alexander Zverev (23.1%) into the top half with a favorable path following his strong recent results. Novak Djokovic (9.8%) at age 39 remains a threat on big stages, while emerging options like Arthur Fils (7.0%), Taylor Fritz (7.2%), and Ben Shelton (5.5%) benefit from solid hard-court form and depth in the draw. The tight clustering among leaders reflects a wide-open Grand Slam where recent injury disruptions, limited match play for favorites, and strong contender momentum keep probabilities closely contested.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,916,926
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Alcaraz" at 28%, followed by "Alexander Zverev" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" has generated $11.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" is "Carlos Alcaraz" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexander Zverev" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.