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icon for 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Elections·France

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

icon for 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Elections·France

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

$334,418 Vol.

Apr 16, 2027
Polymarket

$334,418 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$8,800 Vol.

96%

icon for Nathalie Arthaud

Nathalie Arthaud

$6,993 Vol.

88%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$14,977 Vol.

88%

icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$26,589 Vol.

88%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$3,830 Vol.

85%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$9,612 Vol.

77%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$12,089 Vol.

60%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,613 Vol.

56%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$8,206 Vol.

59%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$7,081 Vol.

47%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$17,241 Vol.

44%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$2,039 Vol.

34%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$12,712 Vol.

31%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$10,689 Vol.

27%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$13,977 Vol.

26%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$9,723 Vol.

24%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$7,220 Vol.

20%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$7,037 Vol.

15%

icon for Karim Bouamrane

Karim Bouamrane

$7,587 Vol.

14%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$4,218 Vol.

13%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$21,561 Vol.

13%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$9,890 Vol.

11%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$4,824 Vol.

10%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$10,438 Vol.

9%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$3,365 Vol.

9%

icon for Delphine Batho

Delphine Batho

$1,587 Vol.

8%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$1,435 Vol.

8%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,233 Vol.

8%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$2,538 Vol.

8%

icon for Jean-Michel Fauvergue

Jean-Michel Fauvergue

$2,815 Vol.

8%

icon for Michel-Edouard Leclerc

Michel-Edouard Leclerc

$8,193 Vol.

7%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$2,898 Vol.

7%

icon for Teddy Riner

Teddy Riner

$1,351 Vol.

7%

icon for Bally Bagayoko

Bally Bagayoko

$7,162 Vol.

7%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$2,049 Vol.

7%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$991 Vol.

6%

icon for Matthieu Pigasse

Matthieu Pigasse

$13,188 Vol.

6%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$5,078 Vol.

6%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$5,008 Vol.

5%

icon for Manuel Valls

Manuel Valls

$1,075 Vol.

5%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$3,988 Vol.

5%

icon for Philippe de Villiers

Philippe de Villiers

$3,906 Vol.

5%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$3,649 Vol.

5%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$21,022 Vol.

3%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$1,598 Vol.

3%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$1,346 Vol.

3%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marine Le Pen’s confirmed candidacy for the National Rally, following an appeal court ruling that reduced her ineligibility period, anchors current polling leads of 33–35 percent in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gained ground to 16–19 percent, positioning him for a potential runoff matchup in multiple scenarios tested by Ifop and Harris Interactive. A fragmented center, with Édouard Philippe at 14–19 percent, Gabriel Attal lower, and Raphaël Glucksmann’s recent declaration adding another contender, raises risks of vote splitting that could limit moderate qualification chances. Bruno Retailleau’s party nomination on the right and ongoing left-wing alliance talks further shape the field ahead of the April 2027 vote, where the top two advance and 500 parrainages are required for ballot access.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$334,418
End Date
Apr 17, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Marine Le Pen’s confirmed candidacy for the National Rally, following an appeal court ruling that reduced her ineligibility period, anchors current polling leads of 33–35 percent in the first round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gained ground to 16–19 percent, positioning him for a potential runoff matchup in multiple scenarios tested by Ifop and Harris Interactive. A fragmented center, with Édouard Philippe at 14–19 percent, Gabriel Attal lower, and Raphaël Glucksmann’s recent declaration adding another contender, raises risks of vote splitting that could limit moderate qualification chances. Bruno Retailleau’s party nomination on the right and ongoing left-wing alliance talks further shape the field ahead of the April 2027 vote, where the top two advance and 500 parrainages are required for ballot access.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$334,418
End Date
Apr 17, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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icon for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

33%
icon for Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 46+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 96%, followed by "Nathalie Arthaud" at 88%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" has generated $334.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?," browse the 46+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nathalie Arthaud" at 88%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.