Recent polling in Alaska's 2026 Senate race shows incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola locked in a narrow contest ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Multiple surveys from September place the candidates within a few points in the initial round, with Peltola showing strength among independents, younger voters, and women while Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans. The presence of two additional Republican candidates on the ballot fragments the first-round vote, sustaining uncertainty over the exact margin. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters, campaign spending on key demographics, or late developments in national political conditions before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 3-6% 19%
Peltola 9-12% 19%
Sullivan 9-12% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
18%
Sullivan 9-12%
18%
Sullivan 6-9%
18%
Sullivan 3-6%
18%
Sullivan 0-3%
18%
Peltola 0-3%
18%
Peltola 3-6%
19%
Peltola 6-9%
18%
Peltola 9-12%
19%
Peltola 12+%
13%
Peltola 3-6% 19%
Peltola 9-12% 19%
Sullivan 9-12% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
$0 Vol.
18%
Sullivan 9-12%
$0 Vol.
18%
Sullivan 6-9%
$0 Vol.
18%
Sullivan 3-6%
$0 Vol.
18%
Sullivan 0-3%
$0 Vol.
18%
Peltola 0-3%
$0 Vol.
18%
Peltola 3-6%
$0 Vol.
19%
Peltola 6-9%
$0 Vol.
18%
Peltola 9-12%
$0 Vol.
19%
Peltola 12+%
$0 Vol.
13%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Alaska's 2026 Senate race shows incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola locked in a narrow contest ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Multiple surveys from September place the candidates within a few points in the initial round, with Peltola showing strength among independents, younger voters, and women while Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans. The presence of two additional Republican candidates on the ballot fragments the first-round vote, sustaining uncertainty over the exact margin. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters, campaign spending on key demographics, or late developments in national political conditions before election day.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Alaska's 2026 Senate race shows incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola locked in a narrow contest ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Multiple surveys from September place the candidates within a few points in the initial round, with Peltola showing strength among independents, younger voters, and women while Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans. The presence of two additional Republican candidates on the ballot fragments the first-round vote, sustaining uncertainty over the exact margin. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters, campaign spending on key demographics, or late developments in national political conditions before election day.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Alaska's 2026 Senate race shows incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola locked in a narrow contest ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Multiple surveys from September place the candidates within a few points in the initial round, with Peltola showing strength among independents, younger voters, and women while Sullivan maintains support among older voters and Republicans. The presence of two additional Republican candidates on the ballot fragments the first-round vote, sustaining uncertainty over the exact margin. Factors that could widen separation include shifts in turnout among unaffiliated voters, campaign spending on key demographics, or late developments in national political conditions before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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