Recent inflation readings near 6.2–6.3% year-over-year, alongside elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and temporary fuel supply disruptions, have kept the Bank of Russia cautious after its September 11 hold at 14%. The central bank’s updated baseline projects a 2026 average key rate of 14.5–14.6% and inflation of 6.0–7.0%, with underlying price growth still within 4–5% annualized amid moderate economic expansion and downward-revised GDP forecasts. Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 bp cut by December because incoming data on sustained disinflation, budget dynamics, and demand trends could support further gradual easing or justify a pause to anchor expectations, while risks from external conditions and fiscal stance limit scope for larger moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 37%
25 bps decrease 34%
50+ bps decrease 17%
25 bps increase 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
17%
25 bps decrease
34%
No change
37%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
8%
No change 37%
25 bps decrease 34%
50+ bps decrease 17%
25 bps increase 9%
NEW
NEW
Dec 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$100 Vol.
17%
25 bps decrease
$1,012 Vol.
34%
No change
$1,358 Vol.
37%
25 bps increase
$93 Vol.
9%
50+ bps increase
$118 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation readings near 6.2–6.3% year-over-year, alongside elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and temporary fuel supply disruptions, have kept the Bank of Russia cautious after its September 11 hold at 14%. The central bank’s updated baseline projects a 2026 average key rate of 14.5–14.6% and inflation of 6.0–7.0%, with underlying price growth still within 4–5% annualized amid moderate economic expansion and downward-revised GDP forecasts. Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 bp cut by December because incoming data on sustained disinflation, budget dynamics, and demand trends could support further gradual easing or justify a pause to anchor expectations, while risks from external conditions and fiscal stance limit scope for larger moves.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,680End Date
Dec 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation readings near 6.2–6.3% year-over-year, alongside elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and temporary fuel supply disruptions, have kept the Bank of Russia cautious after its September 11 hold at 14%. The central bank’s updated baseline projects a 2026 average key rate of 14.5–14.6% and inflation of 6.0–7.0%, with underlying price growth still within 4–5% annualized amid moderate economic expansion and downward-revised GDP forecasts. Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 bp cut by December because incoming data on sustained disinflation, budget dynamics, and demand trends could support further gradual easing or justify a pause to anchor expectations, while risks from external conditions and fiscal stance limit scope for larger moves.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$2,680End Date
Dec 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 6.2–6.3% year-over-year, alongside elevated inflation expectations and pro-inflationary pressures from fiscal expansion and temporary fuel supply disruptions, have kept the Bank of Russia cautious after its September 11 hold at 14%. The central bank’s updated baseline projects a 2026 average key rate of 14.5–14.6% and inflation of 6.0–7.0%, with underlying price growth still within 4–5% annualized amid moderate economic expansion and downward-revised GDP forecasts. Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 bp cut by December because incoming data on sustained disinflation, budget dynamics, and demand trends could support further gradual easing or justify a pause to anchor expectations, while risks from external conditions and fiscal stance limit scope for larger moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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