Recent Canadian CPI data holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply concerns, has sustained upside inflation risks and positioned the Bank of Canada to potentially begin normalizing its 2.25% policy rate. Core measures remain near the 2% target with notable economic slack, tempering the case for immediate action and supporting the 59% market-implied probability of no change at the December 9 decision. Recent Governing Council deliberations underscore vigilance against spillover into broader prices from tariffs and fuel costs, while money markets price a partial 25-basis-point hike at roughly 40% odds, diverging from most economist forecasts that anticipate a hold through year-end. The October Monetary Policy Report and upcoming inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 8, 2026
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase
40%
No Change
59%
25 bps decrease
<1%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 59%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 8, 2026
50+ bps increase
$951 Vol.
1%
25 bps increase
$1,641 Vol.
40%
No Change
$4,468 Vol.
59%
25 bps decrease
$832 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps decrease
$623 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Recent Canadian CPI data holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply concerns, has sustained upside inflation risks and positioned the Bank of Canada to potentially begin normalizing its 2.25% policy rate. Core measures remain near the 2% target with notable economic slack, tempering the case for immediate action and supporting the 59% market-implied probability of no change at the December 9 decision. Recent Governing Council deliberations underscore vigilance against spillover into broader prices from tariffs and fuel costs, while money markets price a partial 25-basis-point hike at roughly 40% odds, diverging from most economist forecasts that anticipate a hold through year-end. The October Monetary Policy Report and upcoming inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,515End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Recent Canadian CPI data holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply concerns, has sustained upside inflation risks and positioned the Bank of Canada to potentially begin normalizing its 2.25% policy rate. Core measures remain near the 2% target with notable economic slack, tempering the case for immediate action and supporting the 59% market-implied probability of no change at the December 9 decision. Recent Governing Council deliberations underscore vigilance against spillover into broader prices from tariffs and fuel costs, while money markets price a partial 25-basis-point hike at roughly 40% odds, diverging from most economist forecasts that anticipate a hold through year-end. The October Monetary Policy Report and upcoming inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$8,515End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Canadian CPI data holding at 3.0% year-over-year in August, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East supply concerns, has sustained upside inflation risks and positioned the Bank of Canada to potentially begin normalizing its 2.25% policy rate. Core measures remain near the 2% target with notable economic slack, tempering the case for immediate action and supporting the 59% market-implied probability of no change at the December 9 decision. Recent Governing Council deliberations underscore vigilance against spillover into broader prices from tariffs and fuel costs, while money markets price a partial 25-basis-point hike at roughly 40% odds, diverging from most economist forecasts that anticipate a hold through year-end. The October Monetary Policy Report and upcoming inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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