**Sylvie Tanguay of the Parti Québécois holds the highest market price at 54% in this multi-outcome contest for the Saint-François riding in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election.** Recent provincial polling averages and riding-specific projections from 338Canada and Qc125 show the PQ leading projected vote share in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, ahead of the Liberals, Québec solidaire, and the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec. This reflects broader voter shifts toward the PQ under current conditions, with the CAQ facing headwinds after leadership changes and weaker provincial numbers. Geneviève Hébert, the sitting CAQ MNA who won the seat with 42% in 2022, is listed at 32.5%, while Liberal Jacqueline Belleau sits at 16% and QS candidate Mia Fréchette at 3%. The large cluster of outcomes priced near 50% signals ongoing uncertainty among traders about final vote splits and turnout in a first-past-the-post contest. Key variables that could widen gaps include targeted riding-level polling, candidate visibility during the final weeks of the campaign, regional turnout patterns among sovereigntist-leaning voters, and any late provincial momentum shifts that favor or hinder the PQ's path to plurality in this Estrie riding. The nomination deadline passed on September 17 with no major surprises in the candidate field.