The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a seat where recent Camden ward results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. By-election dynamics, including potentially lower turnout that often benefits smaller parties in urban progressive areas, combined with Polanski’s profile and local focus on housing and climate issues, have narrowed the projected gap in models to around 4 points. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around Labour’s vote share, with the distribution concentrated between 35% and 45% reflecting risks of further erosion from 2024 levels amid competition from multiple other candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated35-40% 22%
40-45% 20%
45-50% 15%
30-35% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
12%
30-35%
14%
35-40%
22%
40-45%
20%
45-50%
15%
50%+
8%
35-40% 22%
40-45% 20%
45-50% 15%
30-35% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
12%
30-35%
$81 Vol.
14%
35-40%
$106 Vol.
22%
40-45%
$521 Vol.
20%
45-50%
$385 Vol.
15%
50%+
$477 Vol.
8%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a seat where recent Camden ward results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. By-election dynamics, including potentially lower turnout that often benefits smaller parties in urban progressive areas, combined with Polanski’s profile and local focus on housing and climate issues, have narrowed the projected gap in models to around 4 points. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around Labour’s vote share, with the distribution concentrated between 35% and 45% reflecting risks of further erosion from 2024 levels amid competition from multiple other candidates.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,646End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a seat where recent Camden ward results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. By-election dynamics, including potentially lower turnout that often benefits smaller parties in urban progressive areas, combined with Polanski’s profile and local focus on housing and climate issues, have narrowed the projected gap in models to around 4 points. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around Labour’s vote share, with the distribution concentrated between 35% and 45% reflecting risks of further erosion from 2024 levels amid competition from multiple other candidates.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,646End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a seat where recent Camden ward results showed Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. By-election dynamics, including potentially lower turnout that often benefits smaller parties in urban progressive areas, combined with Polanski’s profile and local focus on housing and climate issues, have narrowed the projected gap in models to around 4 points. These factors sustain trader uncertainty around Labour’s vote share, with the distribution concentrated between 35% and 45% reflecting risks of further erosion from 2024 levels amid competition from multiple other candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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