**Rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to drive UK headline CPI higher, positioning the 3.4-3.6% annual rate as the market's leading outcome for September 2026 at 53.5% implied probability.** August CPI came in at 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.9% in July and in line with expectations), with transport—particularly motor fuels—providing the largest upward contribution as petrol and diesel prices surged. Core CPI held steady at 2.6%, while services inflation remained at 3.4%. The Bank of England’s September 17 Monetary Policy Committee decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% (with a 6-3 vote) highlighted further upside risks, projecting CPI near 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, primarily due to elevated and volatile energy prices (Brent crude near $106 per barrel). This environment supports trader consensus around 3.4-3.6% for September, with lower ranges (3.1-3.3% at 41.5%) reflecting some uncertainty over the pace of energy pass-through and potential base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the October CPI release and ongoing energy price volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember Inflation UK - Annual
September Inflation UK - Annual
3.4-3.6% 54%
3.1-3.3% 31%
≤2.7% 14%
3.7-3.9% 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 21, 2026
≤2.7%
14%
2.8-3%
11%
3.1-3.3%
31%
3.4-3.6%
54%
3.7-3.9%
7%
4.0%+
13%
3.4-3.6% 54%
3.1-3.3% 31%
≤2.7% 14%
3.7-3.9% 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 21, 2026
≤2.7%
$222 Vol.
14%
2.8-3%
$207 Vol.
11%
3.1-3.3%
$619 Vol.
31%
3.4-3.6%
$487 Vol.
54%
3.7-3.9%
$332 Vol.
7%
4.0%+
$156 Vol.
13%
This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to drive UK headline CPI higher, positioning the 3.4-3.6% annual rate as the market's leading outcome for September 2026 at 53.5% implied probability.**
August CPI came in at 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.9% in July and in line with expectations), with transport—particularly motor fuels—providing the largest upward contribution as petrol and diesel prices surged. Core CPI held steady at 2.6%, while services inflation remained at 3.4%. The Bank of England’s September 17 Monetary Policy Committee decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% (with a 6-3 vote) highlighted further upside risks, projecting CPI near 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, primarily due to elevated and volatile energy prices (Brent crude near $106 per barrel).
This environment supports trader consensus around 3.4-3.6% for September, with lower ranges (3.1-3.3% at 41.5%) reflecting some uncertainty over the pace of energy pass-through and potential base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the October CPI release and ongoing energy price volatility.
This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,023End Date
Oct 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to drive UK headline CPI higher, positioning the 3.4-3.6% annual rate as the market's leading outcome for September 2026 at 53.5% implied probability.**
August CPI came in at 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.9% in July and in line with expectations), with transport—particularly motor fuels—providing the largest upward contribution as petrol and diesel prices surged. Core CPI held steady at 2.6%, while services inflation remained at 3.4%. The Bank of England’s September 17 Monetary Policy Committee decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% (with a 6-3 vote) highlighted further upside risks, projecting CPI near 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, primarily due to elevated and volatile energy prices (Brent crude near $106 per barrel).
This environment supports trader consensus around 3.4-3.6% for September, with lower ranges (3.1-3.3% at 41.5%) reflecting some uncertainty over the pace of energy pass-through and potential base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the October CPI release and ongoing energy price volatility.
This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$2,023End Date
Oct 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to drive UK headline CPI higher, positioning the 3.4-3.6% annual rate as the market's leading outcome for September 2026 at 53.5% implied probability.** August CPI came in at 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.9% in July and in line with expectations), with transport—particularly motor fuels—providing the largest upward contribution as petrol and diesel prices surged. Core CPI held steady at 2.6%, while services inflation remained at 3.4%. The Bank of England’s September 17 Monetary Policy Committee decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% (with a 6-3 vote) highlighted further upside risks, projecting CPI near 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, primarily due to elevated and volatile energy prices (Brent crude near $106 per barrel). This environment supports trader consensus around 3.4-3.6% for September, with lower ranges (3.1-3.3% at 41.5%) reflecting some uncertainty over the pace of energy pass-through and potential base effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the October CPI release and ongoing energy price volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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