The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, pits Green leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a two-party race. Polanski’s selection and the party’s strong May 2026 Camden council results, where Greens reached 27 percent, have lifted expectations for a significantly higher share than the 10.4 percent recorded in 2024. Projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s under by-election conditions, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 25–35 percent amid uncertainty over turnout, Labour’s local organization, and the degree of squeeze on smaller parties ahead of the October 8 poll. Late campaign events or shifts in national sentiment could widen or narrow that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated30-35% 26%
25-30% 25%
35-40% 14%
20-25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
13%
20-25%
12%
25-30%
25%
30-35%
26%
35-40%
14%
40%+
5%
30-35% 26%
25-30% 25%
35-40% 14%
20-25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$425 Vol.
13%
20-25%
$255 Vol.
12%
25-30%
$454 Vol.
25%
30-35%
$292 Vol.
26%
35-40%
$277 Vol.
14%
40%+
$254 Vol.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, pits Green leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a two-party race. Polanski’s selection and the party’s strong May 2026 Camden council results, where Greens reached 27 percent, have lifted expectations for a significantly higher share than the 10.4 percent recorded in 2024. Projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s under by-election conditions, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 25–35 percent amid uncertainty over turnout, Labour’s local organization, and the degree of squeeze on smaller parties ahead of the October 8 poll. Late campaign events or shifts in national sentiment could widen or narrow that range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,957End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, pits Green leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a two-party race. Polanski’s selection and the party’s strong May 2026 Camden council results, where Greens reached 27 percent, have lifted expectations for a significantly higher share than the 10.4 percent recorded in 2024. Projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s under by-election conditions, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 25–35 percent amid uncertainty over turnout, Labour’s local organization, and the degree of squeeze on smaller parties ahead of the October 8 poll. Late campaign events or shifts in national sentiment could widen or narrow that range.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,957End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September resignation, pits Green leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a two-party race. Polanski’s selection and the party’s strong May 2026 Camden council results, where Greens reached 27 percent, have lifted expectations for a significantly higher share than the 10.4 percent recorded in 2024. Projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s under by-election conditions, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 25–35 percent amid uncertainty over turnout, Labour’s local organization, and the degree of squeeze on smaller parties ahead of the October 8 poll. Late campaign events or shifts in national sentiment could widen or narrow that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions