Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and Nexus consistently places Renan Santos in the low-to-mid single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, reflecting his limited national name recognition outside younger and digital audiences despite strong showings among Gen Z voters. His Mission Party candidacy, formalized in July and validated by the TSE in early September after a brief campaign suspension over social media reporting, competes with other right-leaning outsiders such as Augusto Cury for the same voter pool. Traders’ tight clustering between 2-4% and 4-6% mirrors these stable but modest results and the short remaining campaign window, where free airtime, debates, and any late consolidation of non-polarized support could produce modest shifts while structural barriers like party size and rejection rates limit upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2-4% 34%
4-6% 32%
<2% 15%
6-8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
15%
2-4%
41%
4-6%
32%
6-8%
15%
8%+
11%
2-4% 34%
4-6% 32%
<2% 15%
6-8% 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$0 Vol.
15%
2-4%
$263 Vol.
41%
4-6%
$0 Vol.
32%
6-8%
$0 Vol.
15%
8%+
$0 Vol.
11%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and Nexus consistently places Renan Santos in the low-to-mid single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, reflecting his limited national name recognition outside younger and digital audiences despite strong showings among Gen Z voters. His Mission Party candidacy, formalized in July and validated by the TSE in early September after a brief campaign suspension over social media reporting, competes with other right-leaning outsiders such as Augusto Cury for the same voter pool. Traders’ tight clustering between 2-4% and 4-6% mirrors these stable but modest results and the short remaining campaign window, where free airtime, debates, and any late consolidation of non-polarized support could produce modest shifts while structural barriers like party size and rejection rates limit upside.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$263End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and Nexus consistently places Renan Santos in the low-to-mid single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, reflecting his limited national name recognition outside younger and digital audiences despite strong showings among Gen Z voters. His Mission Party candidacy, formalized in July and validated by the TSE in early September after a brief campaign suspension over social media reporting, competes with other right-leaning outsiders such as Augusto Cury for the same voter pool. Traders’ tight clustering between 2-4% and 4-6% mirrors these stable but modest results and the short remaining campaign window, where free airtime, debates, and any late consolidation of non-polarized support could produce modest shifts while structural barriers like party size and rejection rates limit upside.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$263End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, AtlasIntel, Datafolha, and Nexus consistently places Renan Santos in the low-to-mid single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first round, reflecting his limited national name recognition outside younger and digital audiences despite strong showings among Gen Z voters. His Mission Party candidacy, formalized in July and validated by the TSE in early September after a brief campaign suspension over social media reporting, competes with other right-leaning outsiders such as Augusto Cury for the same voter pool. Traders’ tight clustering between 2-4% and 4-6% mirrors these stable but modest results and the short remaining campaign window, where free airtime, debates, and any late consolidation of non-polarized support could produce modest shifts while structural barriers like party size and rejection rates limit upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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