Recent Quaest polling shows Marília Campos (PT) leading Senate intentions in Minas Gerais at 15%, while Carlos Viana (PSD, seeking reelection), Domingos Sávio (PL), and Marcelo Aro (PP) cluster tightly at 8%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the second seat, with Áurea Carolina and others at 2% or below amid 31% undecided and 21% blank/null voters. Aécio Neves’s (PSDB) withdrawal has consolidated the field without creating clear separation. High voter volatility, limited name recognition for most contenders, and the dual-vote system keep second-place probabilities compressed between Viana and Sávio, as small shifts in turnout or late consolidation among center-right or opposition blocs could reorder the ranking before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Viana 37%
Domingos Sávio 36.0%
Marília Campos 18%
Marcelo Aro 5.9%
$28,482 Vol.
$28,482 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Viana
37%
Domingos Sávio
36%
Marília Campos
18%
Marcelo Aro
6%
Marco Antônio Superman
5%
Áurea Carolina
1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
<1%
Carlin Moura
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
<1%
Ana Luiza do MLB
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
<1%
Tião Pessoa
<1%
Carlos Viana 37%
Domingos Sávio 36.0%
Marília Campos 18%
Marcelo Aro 5.9%
$28,482 Vol.
$28,482 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Viana
$10,838 Vol.
37%
Domingos Sávio
$2,734 Vol.
36%
Marília Campos
$5,817 Vol.
18%
Marcelo Aro
$921 Vol.
6%
Marco Antônio Superman
$915 Vol.
5%
Áurea Carolina
$876 Vol.
1%
Arcanjo Pimenta
$607 Vol.
<1%
Manoel Carvalho
$620 Vol.
<1%
Fidélis Alcântara
$655 Vol.
<1%
Carlin Moura
$618 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Heringer
$581 Vol.
<1%
Jordano Metalúrgico
$555 Vol.
<1%
Juiz Ramon Moreira
$458 Vol.
<1%
Victória Mello Vic
$594 Vol.
<1%
Ana Luiza do MLB
$549 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Galassi
$559 Vol.
<1%
Tião Pessoa
$584 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling shows Marília Campos (PT) leading Senate intentions in Minas Gerais at 15%, while Carlos Viana (PSD, seeking reelection), Domingos Sávio (PL), and Marcelo Aro (PP) cluster tightly at 8%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the second seat, with Áurea Carolina and others at 2% or below amid 31% undecided and 21% blank/null voters. Aécio Neves’s (PSDB) withdrawal has consolidated the field without creating clear separation. High voter volatility, limited name recognition for most contenders, and the dual-vote system keep second-place probabilities compressed between Viana and Sávio, as small shifts in turnout or late consolidation among center-right or opposition blocs could reorder the ranking before the October 4 first round.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Volume
$28,482End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling shows Marília Campos (PT) leading Senate intentions in Minas Gerais at 15%, while Carlos Viana (PSD, seeking reelection), Domingos Sávio (PL), and Marcelo Aro (PP) cluster tightly at 8%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the second seat, with Áurea Carolina and others at 2% or below amid 31% undecided and 21% blank/null voters. Aécio Neves’s (PSDB) withdrawal has consolidated the field without creating clear separation. High voter volatility, limited name recognition for most contenders, and the dual-vote system keep second-place probabilities compressed between Viana and Sávio, as small shifts in turnout or late consolidation among center-right or opposition blocs could reorder the ranking before the October 4 first round.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,482End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Quaest polling shows Marília Campos (PT) leading Senate intentions in Minas Gerais at 15%, while Carlos Viana (PSD, seeking reelection), Domingos Sávio (PL), and Marcelo Aro (PP) cluster tightly at 8%, 8%, and 6% respectively for the second seat, with Áurea Carolina and others at 2% or below amid 31% undecided and 21% blank/null voters. Aécio Neves’s (PSDB) withdrawal has consolidated the field without creating clear separation. High voter volatility, limited name recognition for most contenders, and the dual-vote system keep second-place probabilities compressed between Viana and Sávio, as small shifts in turnout or late consolidation among center-right or opposition blocs could reorder the ranking before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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