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Elections·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul
Elections·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 96%

Lula 1.7%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 96%

Lula 1.7%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$4,930 Vol.

96%

icon for Lula

Lula

$470 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$195 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$240 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$238 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$191 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$271 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$316 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$307 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$338 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$231 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$191 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$248 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in the Mato Grosso do Sul first-round presidential market due to consistent polling leads in the Center-West agricultural state, where recent Quaest surveys show him at 33% against Lula at 27%, with other candidates fragmented below 5%. Regional voter preferences for PL-aligned policies on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have consolidated support behind the senator, whose candidacy carries the endorsement of his father Jair Bolsonaro. Traders reflect this through the 93.5% implied probability. Late shifts among the 13% undecided, stronger-than-expected performances by Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, or national events altering turnout could narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,165
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in the Mato Grosso do Sul first-round presidential market due to consistent polling leads in the Center-West agricultural state, where recent Quaest surveys show him at 33% against Lula at 27%, with other candidates fragmented below 5%. Regional voter preferences for PL-aligned policies on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have consolidated support behind the senator, whose candidacy carries the endorsement of his father Jair Bolsonaro. Traders reflect this through the 93.5% implied probability. Late shifts among the 13% undecided, stronger-than-expected performances by Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, or national events altering turnout could narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,165
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 96%, followed by "Lula" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.