Skip to main content
icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 78%

Lula 18%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$14,275 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 78%

Lula 18%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Zema <1%

Polymarket

$14,275 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$4,169 Vol.

78%

icon for Lula

Lula

$1,630 Vol.

18%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$838 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$834 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$844 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$842 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$928 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$848 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$493 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$858 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$641 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$759 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul shows Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or tied with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with the senator at 34-40% versus Lula's 28-39% across Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys conducted in mid-to-late August 2026. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or below, consistent with limited state-level support. Traders appear to price in Flavio's stronger consolidation of conservative and right-leaning voters in the South, alongside elevated disapproval of the Lula administration among gaúchos, which has positioned him as the clear frontrunner to finish first in the state on October 4. National dynamics and the absence of late shifts in RS-specific data reinforce this implied probability.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,275
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Rio Grande do Sul shows Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or tied with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with the senator at 34-40% versus Lula's 28-39% across Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys conducted in mid-to-late August 2026. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or below, consistent with limited state-level support. Traders appear to price in Flavio's stronger consolidation of conservative and right-leaning voters in the South, alongside elevated disapproval of the Lula administration among gaúchos, which has positioned him as the clear frontrunner to finish first in the state on October 4. National dynamics and the absence of late shifts in RS-specific data reinforce this implied probability.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,275
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Norte?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Norte?

96%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

83%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

94%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 78%, followed by "Lula" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" has generated $14.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.