Recent polls in Rio de Janeiro, including Quaest (Flávio Bolsonaro 31%, Lula 29%) and Datafolha (Flávio 41%, Lula 36%) from mid-to-late August 2026, show the Liberal Party (PL) candidate leading or tied with incumbent President Lula (PT) among state voters for the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Rio senator and official PL nominee, benefits from strong local support in his home state, the country's third-largest electoral college, where right-leaning voters have historically favored the Bolsonaro movement. Other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit or negligible shares in the same surveys. The campaign period opened August 16, with free airtime and debates providing further visibility, reinforcing trader consensus on Flávio's regional advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 82%
Lula 15%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$12,939 Vol.
$12,939 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
82%
Lula
15%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 82%
Lula 15%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$12,939 Vol.
$12,939 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,746 Vol.
82%
Lula
$2,725 Vol.
15%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$625 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$639 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$375 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Rio de Janeiro, including Quaest (Flávio Bolsonaro 31%, Lula 29%) and Datafolha (Flávio 41%, Lula 36%) from mid-to-late August 2026, show the Liberal Party (PL) candidate leading or tied with incumbent President Lula (PT) among state voters for the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Rio senator and official PL nominee, benefits from strong local support in his home state, the country's third-largest electoral college, where right-leaning voters have historically favored the Bolsonaro movement. Other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit or negligible shares in the same surveys. The campaign period opened August 16, with free airtime and debates providing further visibility, reinforcing trader consensus on Flávio's regional advantage.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$12,939End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Rio de Janeiro, including Quaest (Flávio Bolsonaro 31%, Lula 29%) and Datafolha (Flávio 41%, Lula 36%) from mid-to-late August 2026, show the Liberal Party (PL) candidate leading or tied with incumbent President Lula (PT) among state voters for the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Rio senator and official PL nominee, benefits from strong local support in his home state, the country's third-largest electoral college, where right-leaning voters have historically favored the Bolsonaro movement. Other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit or negligible shares in the same surveys. The campaign period opened August 16, with free airtime and debates providing further visibility, reinforcing trader consensus on Flávio's regional advantage.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,939End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls in Rio de Janeiro, including Quaest (Flávio Bolsonaro 31%, Lula 29%) and Datafolha (Flávio 41%, Lula 36%) from mid-to-late August 2026, show the Liberal Party (PL) candidate leading or tied with incumbent President Lula (PT) among state voters for the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Rio senator and official PL nominee, benefits from strong local support in his home state, the country's third-largest electoral college, where right-leaning voters have historically favored the Bolsonaro movement. Other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single-digit or negligible shares in the same surveys. The campaign period opened August 16, with free airtime and debates providing further visibility, reinforcing trader consensus on Flávio's regional advantage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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