Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Rondônia polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Quaest data showing him at 45% against Lula at 25% and all other registered candidates in single digits. The state’s conservative electorate, which delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin in 2022, continues to favor the Liberal Party nominee and his platform on security and economic issues. No major shifts have emerged in the final weeks before the vote, and the candidate’s official nomination plus favorable Ministry of Public Electoral review have reinforced trader consensus on his first-place finish. Late voter movement toward fragmented right-wing alternatives or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,782 Vol.
97%
Renan Santos
$381 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$491 Vol.
1%
Samara
$461 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$430 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$411 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$401 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$577 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$471 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$441 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$471 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Rondônia polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Quaest data showing him at 45% against Lula at 25% and all other registered candidates in single digits. The state’s conservative electorate, which delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin in 2022, continues to favor the Liberal Party nominee and his platform on security and economic issues. No major shifts have emerged in the final weeks before the vote, and the candidate’s official nomination plus favorable Ministry of Public Electoral review have reinforced trader consensus on his first-place finish. Late voter movement toward fragmented right-wing alternatives or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Rondônia polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Quaest data showing him at 45% against Lula at 25% and all other registered candidates in single digits. The state’s conservative electorate, which delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin in 2022, continues to favor the Liberal Party nominee and his platform on security and economic issues. No major shifts have emerged in the final weeks before the vote, and the candidate’s official nomination plus favorable Ministry of Public Electoral review have reinforced trader consensus on his first-place finish. Late voter movement toward fragmented right-wing alternatives or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Rondônia polling for the October 4 first round, with recent Quaest data showing him at 45% against Lula at 25% and all other registered candidates in single digits. The state’s conservative electorate, which delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70-point margin in 2022, continues to favor the Liberal Party nominee and his platform on security and economic issues. No major shifts have emerged in the final weeks before the vote, and the candidate’s official nomination plus favorable Ministry of Public Electoral review have reinforced trader consensus on his first-place finish. Late voter movement toward fragmented right-wing alternatives or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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