Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco first-round voting intentions according to recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast and the president's personal ties as a native of Garanhuns. High local approval of his administration, with roughly 62 percent positive ratings and strong economic performance perceptions, has consolidated support ahead of the October 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent probability aligns with these consistent double-digit margins over distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Potential shifts could arise from major national economic downturns, unforeseen legal developments, or significant campaign events that erode incumbency advantages before voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Lula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 96.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,641 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$382 Vol.
2%
Renan Santos
$267 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$281 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$267 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$313 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$324 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$401 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$324 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$281 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$280 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$324 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$324 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco first-round voting intentions according to recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast and the president's personal ties as a native of Garanhuns. High local approval of his administration, with roughly 62 percent positive ratings and strong economic performance perceptions, has consolidated support ahead of the October 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent probability aligns with these consistent double-digit margins over distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Potential shifts could arise from major national economic downturns, unforeseen legal developments, or significant campaign events that erode incumbency advantages before voting day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,408End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco first-round voting intentions according to recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast and the president's personal ties as a native of Garanhuns. High local approval of his administration, with roughly 62 percent positive ratings and strong economic performance perceptions, has consolidated support ahead of the October 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent probability aligns with these consistent double-digit margins over distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Potential shifts could arise from major national economic downturns, unforeseen legal developments, or significant campaign events that erode incumbency advantages before voting day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,408End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco first-round voting intentions according to recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, reflecting the state's status as a traditional PT stronghold in the Northeast and the president's personal ties as a native of Garanhuns. High local approval of his administration, with roughly 62 percent positive ratings and strong economic performance perceptions, has consolidated support ahead of the October 2026 contest. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent probability aligns with these consistent double-digit margins over distant challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Potential shifts could arise from major national economic downturns, unforeseen legal developments, or significant campaign events that erode incumbency advantages before voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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