Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, reflecting the incumbent’s entrenched regional support in the Northeast, where recent surveys show him at 50-55% compared with Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-26% and all other listed candidates in single digits. High government approval in the state, lower candidate rejection rates, and voter assessments of economic and social policies have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading to October voting. Traders assign minimal probability to alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, or Renan Santos because polling shows limited movement among undecided or persuadable voters. Shifts could still occur if late-campaign events alter turnout patterns or if eligibility rulings affect fringe contenders before the first-round ballot closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94.9%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 94.9%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,084 Vol.
95%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$493 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, reflecting the incumbent’s entrenched regional support in the Northeast, where recent surveys show him at 50-55% compared with Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-26% and all other listed candidates in single digits. High government approval in the state, lower candidate rejection rates, and voter assessments of economic and social policies have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading to October voting. Traders assign minimal probability to alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, or Renan Santos because polling shows limited movement among undecided or persuadable voters. Shifts could still occur if late-campaign events alter turnout patterns or if eligibility rulings affect fringe contenders before the first-round ballot closes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, reflecting the incumbent’s entrenched regional support in the Northeast, where recent surveys show him at 50-55% compared with Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-26% and all other listed candidates in single digits. High government approval in the state, lower candidate rejection rates, and voter assessments of economic and social policies have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading to October voting. Traders assign minimal probability to alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, or Renan Santos because polling shows limited movement among undecided or persuadable voters. Shifts could still occur if late-campaign events alter turnout patterns or if eligibility rulings affect fringe contenders before the first-round ballot closes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,392End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba first-round polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, reflecting the incumbent’s entrenched regional support in the Northeast, where recent surveys show him at 50-55% compared with Flávio Bolsonaro at 21-26% and all other listed candidates in single digits. High government approval in the state, lower candidate rejection rates, and voter assessments of economic and social policies have reinforced this positioning in the weeks leading to October voting. Traders assign minimal probability to alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, or Renan Santos because polling shows limited movement among undecided or persuadable voters. Shifts could still occur if late-campaign events alter turnout patterns or if eligibility rulings affect fringe contenders before the first-round ballot closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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