Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina's Senate race, with Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) separated by margins within sampling error amid high undecided shares. The PL's decision to run both Bolsonaro, who transferred his voter registration, and de Toni on a unified slate supporting Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection has fragmented right-leaning support and sidelined Amin, who is seeking reelection independently. This overlap, combined with two seats at stake on October 4, keeps implied probabilities for the top contenders closely aligned in trader assessments. Further separation could emerge from campaign events clarifying local versus national appeal or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 38%
Carol de Toni 37%
Esperidião Amin 25.4%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter <1%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
38%
Carol de Toni
37%
Esperidião Amin
25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Carol
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 38%
Carol de Toni 37%
Esperidião Amin 25.4%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter <1%
$21,457 Vol.
$21,457 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$6,271 Vol.
38%
Carol de Toni
$6,796 Vol.
37%
Esperidião Amin
$1,942 Vol.
25%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$611 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$959 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$703 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$656 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$666 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$540 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$562 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$645 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$643 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$465 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina's Senate race, with Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) separated by margins within sampling error amid high undecided shares. The PL's decision to run both Bolsonaro, who transferred his voter registration, and de Toni on a unified slate supporting Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection has fragmented right-leaning support and sidelined Amin, who is seeking reelection independently. This overlap, combined with two seats at stake on October 4, keeps implied probabilities for the top contenders closely aligned in trader assessments. Further separation could emerge from campaign events clarifying local versus national appeal or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October deadline.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$21,457End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina's Senate race, with Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) separated by margins within sampling error amid high undecided shares. The PL's decision to run both Bolsonaro, who transferred his voter registration, and de Toni on a unified slate supporting Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection has fragmented right-leaning support and sidelined Amin, who is seeking reelection independently. This overlap, combined with two seats at stake on October 4, keeps implied probabilities for the top contenders closely aligned in trader assessments. Further separation could emerge from campaign events clarifying local versus national appeal or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October deadline.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$21,457End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Quaest and Neokemp show a tight contest for first place in Santa Catarina's Senate race, with Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL) separated by margins within sampling error amid high undecided shares. The PL's decision to run both Bolsonaro, who transferred his voter registration, and de Toni on a unified slate supporting Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection has fragmented right-leaning support and sidelined Amin, who is seeking reelection independently. This overlap, combined with two seats at stake on October 4, keeps implied probabilities for the top contenders closely aligned in trader assessments. Further separation could emerge from campaign events clarifying local versus national appeal or shifts in undecided voters ahead of the October deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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