Recent polls show a tightly contested race for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP) edging or tying leaders in some surveys at around 12-18% while Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) remain within the margin of error. High undecided shares near 27% and blank/null responses above 18% sustain the close market pricing, as voters weigh alignments between Tarcísio de Freitas-backed names and the PT-Haddad coalition slate. Early campaign dynamics, including endorsements and first-round preference splits, keep separation limited ahead of October balloting. Further polling shifts, candidate debates, or turnout patterns among moderates could widen gaps among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 22.1%
Marina Silva 14%
André do Prado 3.5%
$31,342 Vol.
$31,342 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
47%
Simone Tebet
22%
Marina Silva
14%
André do Prado
4%
Salles
3%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 22.1%
Marina Silva 14%
André do Prado 3.5%
$31,342 Vol.
$31,342 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$17,274 Vol.
47%
Simone Tebet
$1,891 Vol.
22%
Marina Silva
$3,630 Vol.
14%
André do Prado
$2,277 Vol.
4%
Salles
$1,514 Vol.
3%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$700 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$396 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$419 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$480 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show a tightly contested race for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP) edging or tying leaders in some surveys at around 12-18% while Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) remain within the margin of error. High undecided shares near 27% and blank/null responses above 18% sustain the close market pricing, as voters weigh alignments between Tarcísio de Freitas-backed names and the PT-Haddad coalition slate. Early campaign dynamics, including endorsements and first-round preference splits, keep separation limited ahead of October balloting. Further polling shifts, candidate debates, or turnout patterns among moderates could widen gaps among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$31,342End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls show a tightly contested race for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP) edging or tying leaders in some surveys at around 12-18% while Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) remain within the margin of error. High undecided shares near 27% and blank/null responses above 18% sustain the close market pricing, as voters weigh alignments between Tarcísio de Freitas-backed names and the PT-Haddad coalition slate. Early campaign dynamics, including endorsements and first-round preference splits, keep separation limited ahead of October balloting. Further polling shifts, candidate debates, or turnout patterns among moderates could widen gaps among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,342End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a tightly contested race for São Paulo's two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP) edging or tying leaders in some surveys at around 12-18% while Marina Silva (Rede), Simone Tebet (PSB), André do Prado (PL), and Ricardo Salles (Novo) remain within the margin of error. High undecided shares near 27% and blank/null responses above 18% sustain the close market pricing, as voters weigh alignments between Tarcísio de Freitas-backed names and the PT-Haddad coalition slate. Early campaign dynamics, including endorsements and first-round preference splits, keep separation limited ahead of October balloting. Further polling shifts, candidate debates, or turnout patterns among moderates could widen gaps among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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