Recent Quaest polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-place intentions at 25% for the Distrito Federal's two Senate seats, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei at 17%, Erika Kokay at 12%, and Bia Kicis at 9%, with roughly 30% undecided or blank. This structure keeps the race for runner-up tight as voters cast two distinct ballots, amplifying the impact of second-choice preferences and cross-alliance dynamics between PL-backed candidates and those aligned with the Lula administration. High indecision levels and limited name recognition for lower-polling names sustain trader consensus around Leila holding the edge for second while Bia and Erika remain within striking distance ahead of October. Further polling shifts or coalition moves could separate the contenders before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 43%
Bia Kicis 21%
Michelle Bolsonaro 16.6%
Erika Kokay 17%
$27,923 Vol.
$27,923 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
43%
Bia Kicis
21%
Michelle Bolsonaro
17%
Erika Kokay
17%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 43%
Bia Kicis 21%
Michelle Bolsonaro 16.6%
Erika Kokay 17%
$27,923 Vol.
$27,923 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$6,841 Vol.
43%
Bia Kicis
$6,974 Vol.
21%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,780 Vol.
17%
Erika Kokay
$4,687 Vol.
17%
David Horn
$1,801 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-place intentions at 25% for the Distrito Federal's two Senate seats, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei at 17%, Erika Kokay at 12%, and Bia Kicis at 9%, with roughly 30% undecided or blank. This structure keeps the race for runner-up tight as voters cast two distinct ballots, amplifying the impact of second-choice preferences and cross-alliance dynamics between PL-backed candidates and those aligned with the Lula administration. High indecision levels and limited name recognition for lower-polling names sustain trader consensus around Leila holding the edge for second while Bia and Erika remain within striking distance ahead of October. Further polling shifts or coalition moves could separate the contenders before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$27,923End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-place intentions at 25% for the Distrito Federal's two Senate seats, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei at 17%, Erika Kokay at 12%, and Bia Kicis at 9%, with roughly 30% undecided or blank. This structure keeps the race for runner-up tight as voters cast two distinct ballots, amplifying the impact of second-choice preferences and cross-alliance dynamics between PL-backed candidates and those aligned with the Lula administration. High indecision levels and limited name recognition for lower-polling names sustain trader consensus around Leila holding the edge for second while Bia and Erika remain within striking distance ahead of October. Further polling shifts or coalition moves could separate the contenders before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,923End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Quaest polling shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading first-place intentions at 25% for the Distrito Federal's two Senate seats, leaving second place contested among incumbent Leila do Vôlei at 17%, Erika Kokay at 12%, and Bia Kicis at 9%, with roughly 30% undecided or blank. This structure keeps the race for runner-up tight as voters cast two distinct ballots, amplifying the impact of second-choice preferences and cross-alliance dynamics between PL-backed candidates and those aligned with the Lula administration. High indecision levels and limited name recognition for lower-polling names sustain trader consensus around Leila holding the edge for second while Bia and Erika remain within striking distance ahead of October. Further polling shifts or coalition moves could separate the contenders before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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