Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, with recent surveys such as AtlasIntel showing him near 49% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s and other contenders in low single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's voter base in the North, where the incumbent has drawn consistent regional support amid approval ratings near 50%. Traders have priced in this edge, reflected in Lula's dominant market share, while lower odds on alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos track their limited statewide traction. Key upcoming factors include the October 2026 vote timeline, any late shifts in national economic conditions or campaign dynamics, and potential consolidation among opposition candidates that could narrow the gap in this large electoral college.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,955 Vol.
$12,955 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 94%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,955 Vol.
$12,955 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,003 Vol.
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$771 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$313 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$533 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$463 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$550 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$526 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$474 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$426 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$539 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$424 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$407 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, with recent surveys such as AtlasIntel showing him near 49% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s and other contenders in low single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's voter base in the North, where the incumbent has drawn consistent regional support amid approval ratings near 50%. Traders have priced in this edge, reflected in Lula's dominant market share, while lower odds on alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos track their limited statewide traction. Key upcoming factors include the October 2026 vote timeline, any late shifts in national economic conditions or campaign dynamics, and potential consolidation among opposition candidates that could narrow the gap in this large electoral college.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$12,955End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, with recent surveys such as AtlasIntel showing him near 49% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s and other contenders in low single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's voter base in the North, where the incumbent has drawn consistent regional support amid approval ratings near 50%. Traders have priced in this edge, reflected in Lula's dominant market share, while lower odds on alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos track their limited statewide traction. Key upcoming factors include the October 2026 vote timeline, any late shifts in national economic conditions or campaign dynamics, and potential consolidation among opposition candidates that could narrow the gap in this large electoral college.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,955End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, with recent surveys such as AtlasIntel showing him near 49% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-to-high 30s and other contenders in low single digits. This positioning aligns with the state's voter base in the North, where the incumbent has drawn consistent regional support amid approval ratings near 50%. Traders have priced in this edge, reflected in Lula's dominant market share, while lower odds on alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos track their limited statewide traction. Key upcoming factors include the October 2026 vote timeline, any late shifts in national economic conditions or campaign dynamics, and potential consolidation among opposition candidates that could narrow the gap in this large electoral college.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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