Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a fragmented contest for the second Paraná Senate seat, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging consolidated vote shares in some surveys while Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Filipe Barros (PL) remain within margins of error across first- and second-preference questions. High indecision rates (often exceeding 25-30%) and regional voting patterns sustain the tightness reflected in market pricing. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, varying rejection levels, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep separation limited. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, clearer party consolidations, or major endorsements could widen gaps before October 4 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 44%
Deltan Dallagnol 24%
Filipe Barros 13%
Cristina Reis Graeml 8.8%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
44%
Deltan Dallagnol
24%
Filipe Barros
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
9%
Gleisi
15%
Joaquim do MLB
1%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Alexandre Curi 44%
Deltan Dallagnol 24%
Filipe Barros 13%
Cristina Reis Graeml 8.8%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$3,065 Vol.
44%
Deltan Dallagnol
$5,612 Vol.
24%
Filipe Barros
$8,908 Vol.
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$991 Vol.
9%
Gleisi
$2,521 Vol.
15%
Joaquim do MLB
$639 Vol.
1%
Dr. Rosinha
$499 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Marcelino
$530 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a fragmented contest for the second Paraná Senate seat, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging consolidated vote shares in some surveys while Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Filipe Barros (PL) remain within margins of error across first- and second-preference questions. High indecision rates (often exceeding 25-30%) and regional voting patterns sustain the tightness reflected in market pricing. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, varying rejection levels, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep separation limited. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, clearer party consolidations, or major endorsements could widen gaps before October 4 voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$23,176End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a fragmented contest for the second Paraná Senate seat, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging consolidated vote shares in some surveys while Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Filipe Barros (PL) remain within margins of error across first- and second-preference questions. High indecision rates (often exceeding 25-30%) and regional voting patterns sustain the tightness reflected in market pricing. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, varying rejection levels, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep separation limited. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, clearer party consolidations, or major endorsements could widen gaps before October 4 voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,176End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August 2026 shows a fragmented contest for the second Paraná Senate seat, with Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging consolidated vote shares in some surveys while Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Filipe Barros (PL) remain within margins of error across first- and second-preference questions. High indecision rates (often exceeding 25-30%) and regional voting patterns sustain the tightness reflected in market pricing. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, varying rejection levels, and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep separation limited. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, clearer party consolidations, or major endorsements could widen gaps before October 4 voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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