Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability for first place in the Goiás first round, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado at 20.5% and Lula at 2.4%. This positioning reflects the state's conservative electorate and agribusiness base, where the Liberal Party candidate benefits from inheriting the Bolsonarista movement following his father's ineligibility. Caiado's strong local profile as former governor—with approval ratings near 87% and a July Genial/Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Flavio's 27%—has not shifted market odds substantially since his PSD presidential launch in late July. Lula trails amid elevated rejection in the state, while minor candidates remain negligible. The first-round vote on October 4 remains open to shifts from ongoing campaign dynamics and any late polling movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Flavio Bolsonaro 72%
Ronaldo Caiado 21%
Lula 2.4%
Clariana Barao <1%
$47,897 Vol.
$47,897 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Ronaldo Caiado
21%
Lula
2%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 72%
Ronaldo Caiado 21%
Lula 2.4%
Clariana Barao <1%
$47,897 Vol.
$47,897 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$22,880 Vol.
72%
Ronaldo Caiado
$12,877 Vol.
21%
Lula
$6,384 Vol.
2%
Clariana Barao
$469 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$458 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$494 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$519 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,480 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$570 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$385 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$398 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$537 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability for first place in the Goiás first round, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado at 20.5% and Lula at 2.4%. This positioning reflects the state's conservative electorate and agribusiness base, where the Liberal Party candidate benefits from inheriting the Bolsonarista movement following his father's ineligibility. Caiado's strong local profile as former governor—with approval ratings near 87% and a July Genial/Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Flavio's 27%—has not shifted market odds substantially since his PSD presidential launch in late July. Lula trails amid elevated rejection in the state, while minor candidates remain negligible. The first-round vote on October 4 remains open to shifts from ongoing campaign dynamics and any late polling movement.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,897End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability for first place in the Goiás first round, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado at 20.5% and Lula at 2.4%. This positioning reflects the state's conservative electorate and agribusiness base, where the Liberal Party candidate benefits from inheriting the Bolsonarista movement following his father's ineligibility. Caiado's strong local profile as former governor—with approval ratings near 87% and a July Genial/Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Flavio's 27%—has not shifted market odds substantially since his PSD presidential launch in late July. Lula trails amid elevated rejection in the state, while minor candidates remain negligible. The first-round vote on October 4 remains open to shifts from ongoing campaign dynamics and any late polling movement.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$47,897End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability for first place in the Goiás first round, well ahead of Ronaldo Caiado at 20.5% and Lula at 2.4%. This positioning reflects the state's conservative electorate and agribusiness base, where the Liberal Party candidate benefits from inheriting the Bolsonarista movement following his father's ineligibility. Caiado's strong local profile as former governor—with approval ratings near 87% and a July Genial/Quaest poll showing him at 33% versus Flavio's 27%—has not shifted market odds substantially since his PSD presidential launch in late July. Lula trails amid elevated rejection in the state, while minor candidates remain negligible. The first-round vote on October 4 remains open to shifts from ongoing campaign dynamics and any late polling movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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