Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in São Paulo polling for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, consistently leading or tying President Lula with shares of 30-38% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data. His Liberal Party nomination, formalized at a São Paulo convention, benefits from strong local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mayor Ricardo Nunes, plus targeted campaign events across the state's large electorate. These factors consolidate support among right-leaning voters in Brazil's biggest electoral college. Lula trails closely in some estimates, while fragmented opposition candidates remain in single digits. Shifts could arise from intensified opposition mobilization, debate performances, or changes in voter turnout patterns before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 91%
Lula 8.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$11,358 Vol.
$11,358 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
91%
Lula
8%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 91%
Lula 8.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$11,358 Vol.
$11,358 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,406 Vol.
91%
Lula
$1,814 Vol.
8%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$655 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$365 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$373 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$626 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in São Paulo polling for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, consistently leading or tying President Lula with shares of 30-38% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data. His Liberal Party nomination, formalized at a São Paulo convention, benefits from strong local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mayor Ricardo Nunes, plus targeted campaign events across the state's large electorate. These factors consolidate support among right-leaning voters in Brazil's biggest electoral college. Lula trails closely in some estimates, while fragmented opposition candidates remain in single digits. Shifts could arise from intensified opposition mobilization, debate performances, or changes in voter turnout patterns before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$11,358End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in São Paulo polling for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, consistently leading or tying President Lula with shares of 30-38% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data. His Liberal Party nomination, formalized at a São Paulo convention, benefits from strong local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mayor Ricardo Nunes, plus targeted campaign events across the state's large electorate. These factors consolidate support among right-leaning voters in Brazil's biggest electoral college. Lula trails closely in some estimates, while fragmented opposition candidates remain in single digits. Shifts could arise from intensified opposition mobilization, debate performances, or changes in voter turnout patterns before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,358End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in São Paulo polling for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, consistently leading or tying President Lula with shares of 30-38% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data. His Liberal Party nomination, formalized at a São Paulo convention, benefits from strong local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mayor Ricardo Nunes, plus targeted campaign events across the state's large electorate. These factors consolidate support among right-leaning voters in Brazil's biggest electoral college. Lula trails closely in some estimates, while fragmented opposition candidates remain in single digits. Shifts could arise from intensified opposition mobilization, debate performances, or changes in voter turnout patterns before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions