Recent polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) at 39–41% in the first round ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 33–37%, with all other candidates below 5%. This positioning keeps the implied margin narrow and explains why traders assign the highest probabilities to a Lula victory of under 10%. The race remains tight due to persistent polarization, comparable rejection rates near 49% for each frontrunner, and mixed government approval that has shown little net movement since the campaign opened on August 16. Scheduled debates, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in undecided voters or smaller-party consolidation could widen or narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 40%
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 6.3%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.2%
$337,875 Vol.
$337,875 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
6%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
40%
Lula da Silva <5%
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 40%
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 6.3%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.2%
$337,875 Vol.
$337,875 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$13,911 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$27,926 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$21,643 Vol.
40%
Lula da Silva <5%
$24,280 Vol.
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$6,656 Vol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,406 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$11,475 Vol.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$211,281 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$4,449 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,473 Vol.
<1%
Other
$5,374 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) at 39–41% in the first round ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 33–37%, with all other candidates below 5%. This positioning keeps the implied margin narrow and explains why traders assign the highest probabilities to a Lula victory of under 10%. The race remains tight due to persistent polarization, comparable rejection rates near 49% for each frontrunner, and mixed government approval that has shown little net movement since the campaign opened on August 16. Scheduled debates, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in undecided voters or smaller-party consolidation could widen or narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$337,875End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) at 39–41% in the first round ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 33–37%, with all other candidates below 5%. This positioning keeps the implied margin narrow and explains why traders assign the highest probabilities to a Lula victory of under 10%. The race remains tight due to persistent polarization, comparable rejection rates near 49% for each frontrunner, and mixed government approval that has shown little net movement since the campaign opened on August 16. Scheduled debates, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in undecided voters or smaller-party consolidation could widen or narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$337,875End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) at 39–41% in the first round ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 33–37%, with all other candidates below 5%. This positioning keeps the implied margin narrow and explains why traders assign the highest probabilities to a Lula victory of under 10%. The race remains tight due to persistent polarization, comparable rejection rates near 49% for each frontrunner, and mixed government approval that has shown little net movement since the campaign opened on August 16. Scheduled debates, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in undecided voters or smaller-party consolidation could widen or narrow the gap before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
88%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
48%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
85%
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