The closely matched probabilities for second place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate contest reflect a tight race among Luizianne Lins (Rede), Alcides Fernandes (PL), Capitão Wagner (União), and incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) for the state’s two seats. Recent polling from July and August shows these four candidates clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-choice intentions, driven by competing coalitions—Luizianne and Cid on the Elmano de Freitas ticket versus Wagner and Fernandes in opposition alignments. Voter ability to split tickets between two distinct candidates, combined with high undecided shares and limited differentiation on key state issues, sustains the equilibrium. Separation could emerge from late campaign momentum, turnout differentials in Fortaleza or interior regions, or shifts in second-preference flows once first-place outcomes clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLuizianne 32%
Alcides Fernandes 23.0%
Cid Gomes 21%
Capitão Wagner 16%
$20,177 Vol.
$20,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
32%
Alcides Fernandes
23%
Cid Gomes
21%
Capitão Wagner
24%
Catarina Matos
2%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Luizianne 32%
Alcides Fernandes 23.0%
Cid Gomes 21%
Capitão Wagner 16%
$20,177 Vol.
$20,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
$5,144 Vol.
32%
Alcides Fernandes
$746 Vol.
23%
Cid Gomes
$2,504 Vol.
21%
Capitão Wagner
$8,604 Vol.
24%
Catarina Matos
$1,204 Vol.
2%
Lino Alves
$685 Vol.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$560 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$728 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely matched probabilities for second place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate contest reflect a tight race among Luizianne Lins (Rede), Alcides Fernandes (PL), Capitão Wagner (União), and incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) for the state’s two seats. Recent polling from July and August shows these four candidates clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-choice intentions, driven by competing coalitions—Luizianne and Cid on the Elmano de Freitas ticket versus Wagner and Fernandes in opposition alignments. Voter ability to split tickets between two distinct candidates, combined with high undecided shares and limited differentiation on key state issues, sustains the equilibrium. Separation could emerge from late campaign momentum, turnout differentials in Fortaleza or interior regions, or shifts in second-preference flows once first-place outcomes clarify.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The closely matched probabilities for second place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate contest reflect a tight race among Luizianne Lins (Rede), Alcides Fernandes (PL), Capitão Wagner (União), and incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) for the state’s two seats. Recent polling from July and August shows these four candidates clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-choice intentions, driven by competing coalitions—Luizianne and Cid on the Elmano de Freitas ticket versus Wagner and Fernandes in opposition alignments. Voter ability to split tickets between two distinct candidates, combined with high undecided shares and limited differentiation on key state issues, sustains the equilibrium. Separation could emerge from late campaign momentum, turnout differentials in Fortaleza or interior regions, or shifts in second-preference flows once first-place outcomes clarify.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for second place in Ceará’s October 4 Senate contest reflect a tight race among Luizianne Lins (Rede), Alcides Fernandes (PL), Capitão Wagner (União), and incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB) for the state’s two seats. Recent polling from July and August shows these four candidates clustered within margins of error in consolidated first- and second-choice intentions, driven by competing coalitions—Luizianne and Cid on the Elmano de Freitas ticket versus Wagner and Fernandes in opposition alignments. Voter ability to split tickets between two distinct candidates, combined with high undecided shares and limited differentiation on key state issues, sustains the equilibrium. Separation could emerge from late campaign momentum, turnout differentials in Fortaleza or interior regions, or shifts in second-preference flows once first-place outcomes clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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