Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a technically tied contest for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15-16%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11% in stimulated voting that allows two choices per ballot. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null intentions around 24% sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) and the PL's independent run, plus late-August municipal endorsements and campaign agendas, keep trader consensus fluid among the top four while limiting separation for lower-polling names. The October 4 election timeline and ongoing voter indecision remain central to shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHumberto Costa 40%
Mendonça Filho 26%
Marília Arraes 21.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.7%
$23,799 Vol.
$23,799 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
40%
Mendonça Filho
26%
Marília Arraes
22%
Eduardo da Fonte
6%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 40%
Mendonça Filho 26%
Marília Arraes 21.8%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.7%
$23,799 Vol.
$23,799 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
$8,801 Vol.
40%
Mendonça Filho
$4,959 Vol.
26%
Marília Arraes
$4,422 Vol.
22%
Eduardo da Fonte
$927 Vol.
6%
Túlio Gadêlha
$676 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$659 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$664 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$647 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a technically tied contest for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15-16%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11% in stimulated voting that allows two choices per ballot. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null intentions around 24% sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) and the PL's independent run, plus late-August municipal endorsements and campaign agendas, keep trader consensus fluid among the top four while limiting separation for lower-polling names. The October 4 election timeline and ongoing voter indecision remain central to shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$23,799End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a technically tied contest for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15-16%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11% in stimulated voting that allows two choices per ballot. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null intentions around 24% sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) and the PL's independent run, plus late-August municipal endorsements and campaign agendas, keep trader consensus fluid among the top four while limiting separation for lower-polling names. The October 4 election timeline and ongoing voter indecision remain central to shifts.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,799End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a technically tied contest for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) at 15-16%, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11% in stimulated voting that allows two choices per ballot. High undecided shares near 26% and blank/null intentions around 24% sustain volatility in second-place positioning. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) and the PL's independent run, plus late-August municipal endorsements and campaign agendas, keep trader consensus fluid among the top four while limiting separation for lower-polling names. The October 4 election timeline and ongoing voter indecision remain central to shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions