Recent polling from late August shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in voter intentions for Pernambuco's two Senate seats at 15-16%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 13% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and others trailing further. High undecided shares around 26% and blank/null intentions near 24% sustain uncertainty in the race for first place. Arraes benefits from her alliance in the João Campos-led chapa and early campaign momentum, while Costa's re-election bid and Mendonça's independent positioning keep the field competitive. Traders price Arraes as the consensus favorite for the top spot based on these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could alter outcomes before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 25.8%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,808 Vol.
$25,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
55%
Humberto Costa
26%
Mendonça Filho
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 55%
Humberto Costa 25.8%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,808 Vol.
$25,808 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$11,864 Vol.
55%
Humberto Costa
$7,844 Vol.
26%
Mendonça Filho
$1,212 Vol.
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
$798 Vol.
2%
Gorett Bitu
$525 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$493 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$486 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in voter intentions for Pernambuco's two Senate seats at 15-16%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 13% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and others trailing further. High undecided shares around 26% and blank/null intentions near 24% sustain uncertainty in the race for first place. Arraes benefits from her alliance in the João Campos-led chapa and early campaign momentum, while Costa's re-election bid and Mendonça's independent positioning keep the field competitive. Traders price Arraes as the consensus favorite for the top spot based on these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could alter outcomes before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$25,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in voter intentions for Pernambuco's two Senate seats at 15-16%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 13% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and others trailing further. High undecided shares around 26% and blank/null intentions near 24% sustain uncertainty in the race for first place. Arraes benefits from her alliance in the João Campos-led chapa and early campaign momentum, while Costa's re-election bid and Mendonça's independent positioning keep the field competitive. Traders price Arraes as the consensus favorite for the top spot based on these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could alter outcomes before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,808End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows Marília Arraes (PDT) holding a narrow lead in voter intentions for Pernambuco's two Senate seats at 15-16%, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 13% and Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9%, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and others trailing further. High undecided shares around 26% and blank/null intentions near 24% sustain uncertainty in the race for first place. Arraes benefits from her alliance in the João Campos-led chapa and early campaign momentum, while Costa's re-election bid and Mendonça's independent positioning keep the field competitive. Traders price Arraes as the consensus favorite for the top spot based on these trends, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could alter outcomes before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions