João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 84% market-implied probability of finishing first in the Paraíba Senate race, reflecting consistent leads in late-August surveys. Real Time Big Data (Aug. 19–22) gave him 29% consolidated support versus 23% for incumbent Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), while Quaest (Aug. 21–24) showed 27% to 17%, with Azevêdo reaching 38% on first-preference votes alone. His April 2026 resignation as governor to contest the seat, combined with name recognition from two prior gubernatorial wins, underpins the positioning ahead of the October 4 election that elects two senators. Trailing candidates such as Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) at 9% and Marcelo Queiroga (PL) at 6% register far lower support, aligning with their single-digit probabilities. High undecided and null rates (around 30%) remain, yet recent polling momentum has stabilized the front-runner’s advantage in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJoao Azevêdo 85%
Veneziano 11.1%
Nabor 4.0%
João Batista <1%
$11,959 Vol.
$11,959 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
85%
Veneziano
11%
Nabor
4%
João Batista
<1%
Major Fábio
<1%
Adriano Trajano
<1%
André Gadelha
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
<1%
Rosilene Santana
<1%
Joao Azevêdo 85%
Veneziano 11.1%
Nabor 4.0%
João Batista <1%
$11,959 Vol.
$11,959 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
$7,740 Vol.
85%
Veneziano
$1,444 Vol.
11%
Nabor
$460 Vol.
4%
João Batista
$304 Vol.
<1%
Major Fábio
$290 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Trajano
$383 Vol.
<1%
André Gadelha
$342 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
$253 Vol.
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
$313 Vol.
<1%
Rosilene Santana
$431 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 84% market-implied probability of finishing first in the Paraíba Senate race, reflecting consistent leads in late-August surveys. Real Time Big Data (Aug. 19–22) gave him 29% consolidated support versus 23% for incumbent Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), while Quaest (Aug. 21–24) showed 27% to 17%, with Azevêdo reaching 38% on first-preference votes alone. His April 2026 resignation as governor to contest the seat, combined with name recognition from two prior gubernatorial wins, underpins the positioning ahead of the October 4 election that elects two senators. Trailing candidates such as Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) at 9% and Marcelo Queiroga (PL) at 6% register far lower support, aligning with their single-digit probabilities. High undecided and null rates (around 30%) remain, yet recent polling momentum has stabilized the front-runner’s advantage in trader assessments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$11,959End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 84% market-implied probability of finishing first in the Paraíba Senate race, reflecting consistent leads in late-August surveys. Real Time Big Data (Aug. 19–22) gave him 29% consolidated support versus 23% for incumbent Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), while Quaest (Aug. 21–24) showed 27% to 17%, with Azevêdo reaching 38% on first-preference votes alone. His April 2026 resignation as governor to contest the seat, combined with name recognition from two prior gubernatorial wins, underpins the positioning ahead of the October 4 election that elects two senators. Trailing candidates such as Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) at 9% and Marcelo Queiroga (PL) at 6% register far lower support, aligning with their single-digit probabilities. High undecided and null rates (around 30%) remain, yet recent polling momentum has stabilized the front-runner’s advantage in trader assessments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,959End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 84% market-implied probability of finishing first in the Paraíba Senate race, reflecting consistent leads in late-August surveys. Real Time Big Data (Aug. 19–22) gave him 29% consolidated support versus 23% for incumbent Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), while Quaest (Aug. 21–24) showed 27% to 17%, with Azevêdo reaching 38% on first-preference votes alone. His April 2026 resignation as governor to contest the seat, combined with name recognition from two prior gubernatorial wins, underpins the positioning ahead of the October 4 election that elects two senators. Trailing candidates such as Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) at 9% and Marcelo Queiroga (PL) at 6% register far lower support, aligning with their single-digit probabilities. High undecided and null rates (around 30%) remain, yet recent polling momentum has stabilized the front-runner’s advantage in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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