Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads the Federal District Senate race for first place at 67.5% implied probability, ahead of a crowded field where most other candidates trade at or below 50%. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polling from mid-to-late August shows her at 19-25% vote intention for the two-seat contest, ahead of incumbent Leila Barros (PDT, "Leila do Vôlei") at 16-17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-11%, with large shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Her confirmed candidacy after party convention in early August, following earlier hesitation tied to internal PL dynamics, combined with strong name recognition and alignment in right-leaning voter blocs, underpins trader positioning. Lower probabilities for remaining names reflect their single-digit or sub-2% polling support and limited visibility ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 68%
Leila do Vôlei 30%
Erika Kokay 3.1%
Bia Kicis <1%
$12,232 Vol.
$12,232 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
68%
Leila do Vôlei
30%
Erika Kokay
3%
Bia Kicis
1%
Avenir Rosa
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 68%
Leila do Vôlei 30%
Erika Kokay 3.1%
Bia Kicis <1%
$12,232 Vol.
$12,232 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,642 Vol.
68%
Leila do Vôlei
$1,981 Vol.
30%
Erika Kokay
$623 Vol.
3%
Bia Kicis
$2,486 Vol.
1%
Avenir Rosa
$335 Vol.
1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$470 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$337 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$346 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$358 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$409 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$377 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads the Federal District Senate race for first place at 67.5% implied probability, ahead of a crowded field where most other candidates trade at or below 50%. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polling from mid-to-late August shows her at 19-25% vote intention for the two-seat contest, ahead of incumbent Leila Barros (PDT, "Leila do Vôlei") at 16-17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-11%, with large shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Her confirmed candidacy after party convention in early August, following earlier hesitation tied to internal PL dynamics, combined with strong name recognition and alignment in right-leaning voter blocs, underpins trader positioning. Lower probabilities for remaining names reflect their single-digit or sub-2% polling support and limited visibility ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$12,232End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads the Federal District Senate race for first place at 67.5% implied probability, ahead of a crowded field where most other candidates trade at or below 50%. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polling from mid-to-late August shows her at 19-25% vote intention for the two-seat contest, ahead of incumbent Leila Barros (PDT, "Leila do Vôlei") at 16-17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-11%, with large shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Her confirmed candidacy after party convention in early August, following earlier hesitation tied to internal PL dynamics, combined with strong name recognition and alignment in right-leaning voter blocs, underpins trader positioning. Lower probabilities for remaining names reflect their single-digit or sub-2% polling support and limited visibility ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,232End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads the Federal District Senate race for first place at 67.5% implied probability, ahead of a crowded field where most other candidates trade at or below 50%. Recent Quaest and Datafolha polling from mid-to-late August shows her at 19-25% vote intention for the two-seat contest, ahead of incumbent Leila Barros (PDT, "Leila do Vôlei") at 16-17%, Erika Kokay (PT) at 12%, and Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-11%, with large shares of undecided and blank/null voters. Her confirmed candidacy after party convention in early August, following earlier hesitation tied to internal PL dynamics, combined with strong name recognition and alignment in right-leaning voter blocs, underpins trader positioning. Lower probabilities for remaining names reflect their single-digit or sub-2% polling support and limited visibility ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions