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Elections·Brazil

Paraíba Governor Election Winner

icon for Paraíba Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Paraíba Governor Election Winner

Lucas Ribeiro 77%

Cícero Lucena 18%

Efraim Filho 5%

Flávio Lúcio <1%

Polymarket

$55,252 Vol.

Lucas Ribeiro 77%

Cícero Lucena 18%

Efraim Filho 5%

Flávio Lúcio <1%

Polymarket

$55,252 Vol.

icon for Lucas Ribeiro

Lucas Ribeiro

$15,705 Vol.

77%

icon for Cícero Lucena

Cícero Lucena

$17,571 Vol.

18%

icon for Efraim Filho

Efraim Filho

$13,221 Vol.

5%

icon for Flávio Lúcio

Flávio Lúcio

$821 Vol.

1%

icon for Veneziano Vital do Rêgo

Veneziano Vital do Rêgo

$2,360 Vol.

1%

icon for Nilvan Ferreira

Nilvan Ferreira

$818 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romero Rodrigues

Romero Rodrigues

$1,449 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcelo Queiroga

Marcelo Queiroga

$3,307 Vol.

<1%

The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest. Recent August polls, including Quaest (38% for Ribeiro versus 19% for Cícero Lucena and 18% for Efraim Filho) and Real Time Big Data (35% versus 25% and 21%), show him maintaining a double-digit lead with roughly five weeks remaining, alongside 61% approval of his administration. His broad coalition support, including alignment preferences among voters favoring continuity and Lula ties, underpins the trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for his outright victory. Rivals like Lucena (MDB) and Efraim Filho (PL) trail significantly in both first- and second-round scenarios, with minor candidates and “other” outcomes priced lower due to limited polling traction and structural barriers to consolidation. No major late shifts have altered this dynamic in the past month.

The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$55,252
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest. Recent August polls, including Quaest (38% for Ribeiro versus 19% for Cícero Lucena and 18% for Efraim Filho) and Real Time Big Data (35% versus 25% and 21%), show him maintaining a double-digit lead with roughly five weeks remaining, alongside 61% approval of his administration. His broad coalition support, including alignment preferences among voters favoring continuity and Lula ties, underpins the trader consensus reflected in elevated pricing for his outright victory. Rivals like Lucena (MDB) and Efraim Filho (PL) trail significantly in both first- and second-round scenarios, with minor candidates and “other” outcomes priced lower due to limited polling traction and structural barriers to consolidation. No major late shifts have altered this dynamic in the past month.

The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$55,252
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Paraíba Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lucas Ribeiro" at 77%, followed by "Cícero Lucena" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 77¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Paraíba Governor Election Winner" has generated $55.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Paraíba Governor Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Paraíba Governor Election Winner" is "Lucas Ribeiro" at 77%, meaning the market assigns a 77% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cícero Lucena" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Paraíba Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.