Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor of São Paulo seeking re-election under the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, with surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 40-52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 27-35%. This positioning stems from consistent advantages in voting intentions across multiple rounds, the withdrawal of potential centrist challengers such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated support around the two main contenders, and high levels of voter certainty reported in late August polls. Traders price Tarcísio near certainty of victory given these trends and the limited impact of minor candidates like Erika Hilton, Márcio França, and others. A realistic shift would require substantial late-campaign movement among undecided voters or turnout patterns favoring the opposition in Brazil’s largest electoral state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 97.4%
Fernando Haddad 2.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$292,630 Vol.
$292,630 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.4%
Fernando Haddad 2.1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$292,630 Vol.
$292,630 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133,467 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$48,655 Vol.
2%
Erika Hilton
$23,007 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,833 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor of São Paulo seeking re-election under the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, with surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 40-52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 27-35%. This positioning stems from consistent advantages in voting intentions across multiple rounds, the withdrawal of potential centrist challengers such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated support around the two main contenders, and high levels of voter certainty reported in late August polls. Traders price Tarcísio near certainty of victory given these trends and the limited impact of minor candidates like Erika Hilton, Márcio França, and others. A realistic shift would require substantial late-campaign movement among undecided voters or turnout patterns favoring the opposition in Brazil’s largest electoral state.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$292,630End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor of São Paulo seeking re-election under the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, with surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 40-52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 27-35%. This positioning stems from consistent advantages in voting intentions across multiple rounds, the withdrawal of potential centrist challengers such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated support around the two main contenders, and high levels of voter certainty reported in late August polls. Traders price Tarcísio near certainty of victory given these trends and the limited impact of minor candidates like Erika Hilton, Márcio França, and others. A realistic shift would require substantial late-campaign movement among undecided voters or turnout patterns favoring the opposition in Brazil’s largest electoral state.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$292,630End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor of São Paulo seeking re-election under the Republicans party, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote, with surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showing him at 40-52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 27-35%. This positioning stems from consistent advantages in voting intentions across multiple rounds, the withdrawal of potential centrist challengers such as Kim Kataguiri that consolidated support around the two main contenders, and high levels of voter certainty reported in late August polls. Traders price Tarcísio near certainty of victory given these trends and the limited impact of minor candidates like Erika Hilton, Márcio França, and others. A realistic shift would require substantial late-campaign movement among undecided voters or turnout patterns favoring the opposition in Brazil’s largest electoral state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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