Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor and continuity candidate backed by a broad coalition including the PT and Republicanos, holds the lead in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote. Recent AtlasIntel polling from mid-August shows her at roughly 49% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41%, a gap that widened after a leaked private video involving Santos. Earlier surveys from Quaest and others had the race closer to a technical tie with high undecided shares, reflecting Santos’s profile as former mayor of Ananindeua and his own multi-party support. Low single-digit or sub-1% readings for other names such as Éder Mauro, Dirceu Ten Caten, and Zequinha Marinho align with their marginal polling visibility. A potential runoff on October 25 remains possible given the 50% threshold and remaining undecided voters, though Hana’s position benefits from institutional continuity and the recent polling movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPará Governor Election Winner
Pará Governor Election Winner
Hana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Éder Mauro 1.1%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$34,049 Vol.
$34,049 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
58%
Dr. Daniel Santos
41%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Hana Ghassan 58%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Éder Mauro 1.1%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$34,049 Vol.
$34,049 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$14,685 Vol.
58%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$9,547 Vol.
41%
Éder Mauro
$3,836 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$1,504 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$1,543 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$1,561 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$1,374 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor and continuity candidate backed by a broad coalition including the PT and Republicanos, holds the lead in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote. Recent AtlasIntel polling from mid-August shows her at roughly 49% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41%, a gap that widened after a leaked private video involving Santos. Earlier surveys from Quaest and others had the race closer to a technical tie with high undecided shares, reflecting Santos’s profile as former mayor of Ananindeua and his own multi-party support. Low single-digit or sub-1% readings for other names such as Éder Mauro, Dirceu Ten Caten, and Zequinha Marinho align with their marginal polling visibility. A potential runoff on October 25 remains possible given the 50% threshold and remaining undecided voters, though Hana’s position benefits from institutional continuity and the recent polling movement.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$34,049End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor and continuity candidate backed by a broad coalition including the PT and Republicanos, holds the lead in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote. Recent AtlasIntel polling from mid-August shows her at roughly 49% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41%, a gap that widened after a leaked private video involving Santos. Earlier surveys from Quaest and others had the race closer to a technical tie with high undecided shares, reflecting Santos’s profile as former mayor of Ananindeua and his own multi-party support. Low single-digit or sub-1% readings for other names such as Éder Mauro, Dirceu Ten Caten, and Zequinha Marinho align with their marginal polling visibility. A potential runoff on October 25 remains possible given the 50% threshold and remaining undecided voters, though Hana’s position benefits from institutional continuity and the recent polling movement.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$34,049End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan (MDB), the incumbent governor and continuity candidate backed by a broad coalition including the PT and Republicanos, holds the lead in trader pricing for the October 4 first-round vote. Recent AtlasIntel polling from mid-August shows her at roughly 49% against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 41%, a gap that widened after a leaked private video involving Santos. Earlier surveys from Quaest and others had the race closer to a technical tie with high undecided shares, reflecting Santos’s profile as former mayor of Ananindeua and his own multi-party support. Low single-digit or sub-1% readings for other names such as Éder Mauro, Dirceu Ten Caten, and Zequinha Marinho align with their marginal polling visibility. A potential runoff on October 25 remains possible given the 50% threshold and remaining undecided voters, though Hana’s position benefits from institutional continuity and the recent polling movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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