Recent polling from Quaest and other institutes shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) firmly leading the race for one of Mato Grosso do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Capitão Contar (PL) holding a clear edge for second amid consolidated party support. Nelsinho Trad’s July withdrawal as a candidate to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has channeled right-leaning voters toward the PL ticket, boosting Contar’s positioning in consolidated first- and second-preference tallies. Vander Loubet (PT) trails as the strongest remaining challenger while Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and lower-polling names remain further back, with high undecided shares and a year until the October 2026 vote leaving room for shifts in turnout or alliances. Market pricing for second place aligns with these trends in the wisdom of crowds reflected by active trading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Contar 63%
Vander Loubet 34%
Soraya 3.5%
Reinaldo Azambuja 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
63%
Vander Loubet
34%
Soraya
14%
Reinaldo Azambuja
3%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Valter da Comagran
<1%
Luiz Lemes
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Valderi Garcia
<1%
Capitão Contar 63%
Vander Loubet 34%
Soraya 3.5%
Reinaldo Azambuja 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
$2,126 Vol.
63%
Vander Loubet
$2,198 Vol.
34%
Soraya
$448 Vol.
14%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$453 Vol.
3%
Beto do Movimento
$455 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
$464 Vol.
<1%
Valter da Comagran
$470 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Lemes
$469 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$441 Vol.
<1%
Valderi Garcia
$397 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and other institutes shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) firmly leading the race for one of Mato Grosso do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Capitão Contar (PL) holding a clear edge for second amid consolidated party support. Nelsinho Trad’s July withdrawal as a candidate to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has channeled right-leaning voters toward the PL ticket, boosting Contar’s positioning in consolidated first- and second-preference tallies. Vander Loubet (PT) trails as the strongest remaining challenger while Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and lower-polling names remain further back, with high undecided shares and a year until the October 2026 vote leaving room for shifts in turnout or alliances. Market pricing for second place aligns with these trends in the wisdom of crowds reflected by active trading.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,921End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and other institutes shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) firmly leading the race for one of Mato Grosso do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Capitão Contar (PL) holding a clear edge for second amid consolidated party support. Nelsinho Trad’s July withdrawal as a candidate to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has channeled right-leaning voters toward the PL ticket, boosting Contar’s positioning in consolidated first- and second-preference tallies. Vander Loubet (PT) trails as the strongest remaining challenger while Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and lower-polling names remain further back, with high undecided shares and a year until the October 2026 vote leaving room for shifts in turnout or alliances. Market pricing for second place aligns with these trends in the wisdom of crowds reflected by active trading.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,921End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest and other institutes shows Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) firmly leading the race for one of Mato Grosso do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Capitão Contar (PL) holding a clear edge for second amid consolidated party support. Nelsinho Trad’s July withdrawal as a candidate to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has channeled right-leaning voters toward the PL ticket, boosting Contar’s positioning in consolidated first- and second-preference tallies. Vander Loubet (PT) trails as the strongest remaining challenger while Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and lower-polling names remain further back, with high undecided shares and a year until the October 2026 vote leaving room for shifts in turnout or alliances. Market pricing for second place aligns with these trends in the wisdom of crowds reflected by active trading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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