Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race, backed by consistent polling dominance and structural advantages ahead of the October 4 election. As a two-term former governor with deep rural and interior support, Azambuja benefits from unified PL backing, an alliance with Governor Eduardo Riedel, and Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as his suplente rather than seek re-election. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) placed him at 31% for the first seat and 22% overall when combining voter preferences for the two vacancies, well ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (17%/15%) and others such as Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet. High undecided rates persist, yet Azambuja’s regional breadth and low volatility in earlier surveys reinforce his position as the frontrunner for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 9%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
Roberto Oshiro 2.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
74%
Capitão Contar
9%
Vander Loubet
3%
Roberto Oshiro
3%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Daniel Junior
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Valderi Garcia
<1%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Soraya
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 74%
Capitão Contar 9%
Vander Loubet 3.3%
Roberto Oshiro 2.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$4,062 Vol.
74%
Capitão Contar
$1,887 Vol.
9%
Vander Loubet
$157 Vol.
3%
Roberto Oshiro
$228 Vol.
3%
Luiz Lemes
$185 Vol.
1%
Daniel Junior
$152 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$226 Vol.
1%
Valderi Garcia
$157 Vol.
<1%
Beto do Movimento
$157 Vol.
<1%
Soraya
$157 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race, backed by consistent polling dominance and structural advantages ahead of the October 4 election. As a two-term former governor with deep rural and interior support, Azambuja benefits from unified PL backing, an alliance with Governor Eduardo Riedel, and Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as his suplente rather than seek re-election. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) placed him at 31% for the first seat and 22% overall when combining voter preferences for the two vacancies, well ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (17%/15%) and others such as Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet. High undecided rates persist, yet Azambuja’s regional breadth and low volatility in earlier surveys reinforce his position as the frontrunner for the top spot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,368End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race, backed by consistent polling dominance and structural advantages ahead of the October 4 election. As a two-term former governor with deep rural and interior support, Azambuja benefits from unified PL backing, an alliance with Governor Eduardo Riedel, and Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as his suplente rather than seek re-election. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) placed him at 31% for the first seat and 22% overall when combining voter preferences for the two vacancies, well ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (17%/15%) and others such as Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet. High undecided rates persist, yet Azambuja’s regional breadth and low volatility in earlier surveys reinforce his position as the frontrunner for the top spot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,368End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race, backed by consistent polling dominance and structural advantages ahead of the October 4 election. As a two-term former governor with deep rural and interior support, Azambuja benefits from unified PL backing, an alliance with Governor Eduardo Riedel, and Nelsinho Trad’s decision to serve as his suplente rather than seek re-election. The latest Quaest survey (conducted August 21–24) placed him at 31% for the first seat and 22% overall when combining voter preferences for the two vacancies, well ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (17%/15%) and others such as Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet. High undecided rates persist, yet Azambuja’s regional breadth and low volatility in earlier surveys reinforce his position as the frontrunner for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions