Jaques Wagner holds the clearest edge for second place in the Bahia Senate race due to strong PT brand loyalty, incumbency advantages, and consistent polling placement behind Rui Costa. Recent Genial/Quaest and IDEIA surveys from July and August 2026 show the two PT candidates combining for the top spots, with opposition figures Angelo Coronel and João Roma trailing and splitting the non-PT vote. Legal scrutiny around Wagner has raised his rejection numbers without derailing his position, while high undecided and blank rates leave room for late shifts. The market prices reflect this PT structural lead alongside uncertainty over which opposition contender can consolidate enough support to challenge for the second seat before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 56%
Angelo Coronel 16.2%
Rui Costa 15.2%
João Roma 7.3%
$18,879 Vol.
$18,879 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
56%
Angelo Coronel
16%
Rui Costa
15%
João Roma
7%
Carlos Sodré
1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Jaques Wagner 56%
Angelo Coronel 16.2%
Rui Costa 15.2%
João Roma 7.3%
$18,879 Vol.
$18,879 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$11,529 Vol.
56%
Angelo Coronel
$457 Vol.
16%
Rui Costa
$3,557 Vol.
15%
João Roma
$376 Vol.
7%
Carlos Sodré
$272 Vol.
1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$387 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$673 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$586 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$471 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$570 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner holds the clearest edge for second place in the Bahia Senate race due to strong PT brand loyalty, incumbency advantages, and consistent polling placement behind Rui Costa. Recent Genial/Quaest and IDEIA surveys from July and August 2026 show the two PT candidates combining for the top spots, with opposition figures Angelo Coronel and João Roma trailing and splitting the non-PT vote. Legal scrutiny around Wagner has raised his rejection numbers without derailing his position, while high undecided and blank rates leave room for late shifts. The market prices reflect this PT structural lead alongside uncertainty over which opposition contender can consolidate enough support to challenge for the second seat before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$18,879End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner holds the clearest edge for second place in the Bahia Senate race due to strong PT brand loyalty, incumbency advantages, and consistent polling placement behind Rui Costa. Recent Genial/Quaest and IDEIA surveys from July and August 2026 show the two PT candidates combining for the top spots, with opposition figures Angelo Coronel and João Roma trailing and splitting the non-PT vote. Legal scrutiny around Wagner has raised his rejection numbers without derailing his position, while high undecided and blank rates leave room for late shifts. The market prices reflect this PT structural lead alongside uncertainty over which opposition contender can consolidate enough support to challenge for the second seat before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,879End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jaques Wagner holds the clearest edge for second place in the Bahia Senate race due to strong PT brand loyalty, incumbency advantages, and consistent polling placement behind Rui Costa. Recent Genial/Quaest and IDEIA surveys from July and August 2026 show the two PT candidates combining for the top spots, with opposition figures Angelo Coronel and João Roma trailing and splitting the non-PT vote. Legal scrutiny around Wagner has raised his rejection numbers without derailing his position, while high undecided and blank rates leave room for late shifts. The market prices reflect this PT structural lead alongside uncertainty over which opposition contender can consolidate enough support to challenge for the second seat before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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